It was already becoming apparent at the end of 2025: M&A activity in the transport and logistics industry has clearly moved past the post-pandemic correction phase. But rather than unbridled dealmaking, transaction activity has shifted into a more disciplined, more selective phase. The development in 2025 was therefore not a volume-driven upswing, but a strategic recalibration that is now shaping expectations for 2026. One thing is already clear: buyers prefer businesses with stable, predictable earnings, ideally underpinned by long-term contracts and only marginally exposed to the volatility of spot freight.
Technology as a differentiator
Alongside earnings quality, technology is increasingly taking centre stage in acquisition decisions. Companies that offer automation, digital freight management, ecosystem integration, real-time visibility or AI-driven optimisation provide buyers with structural advantages. Technological capabilities are increasingly viewed as core infrastructure — indispensable for protecting margins, enabling scalability, strengthening customer retention and gaining market share. The days when “tech” was merely a nice add-on are well and truly over.
2026: acting with purpose in an imperfect environment
Recent months have made one thing clear: developments in transatlantic relations and global tensions barely allow forecasts to remain valid for more than a few days. Tariff debates, alongside macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, have reshaped the market and are reflected in a shift towards highly targeted acquisitions, bolt-ons and operationally focused transactions. Buyers are no longer waiting for optimal conditions; they understand they must operate in an imperfect and constantly changing environment. But what does this mean across individual segments from the perspective of potential buyers?
Freight forwarding: consolidation with clear filters
The freight forwarding industry faces major challenges in 2026. Growth may gradually return, but margin pressure and price volatility will persist. Ocean freight rates in particular could be affected by a broad return of forwarders to the Suez Canal, alongside new vessel capacity coming on stream that exceeds growth in freight volumes.
Strategic buyers will focus on companies that combine industry-specific expertise and depth of service with customs know-how and high levels of digitalisation. Following the DSV–Schenker merger in 2025, consolidation remained limited, which could trigger a new wave in 2026 as other top-20 players look to close the gap with the market leader.
The importance of artificial intelligence and digitalisation for freight forwarders is illustrated by C.H. Robinson and its strong share price performance in recent months. The US company is widely regarded as a pioneer — and a case study in how the scaled deployment of AI can deliver lasting efficiency gains and margin improvements in freight forwarding.
Private equity interest will focus on technology-enabled models and aggregator platforms that offer scope for value-enhancing M&A — such as lower-risk acquisitions of smaller operating units, or purchases that add specialised expertise in specific trade lanes or vertical customer segments. AI initiatives can also play an important role in value creation by improving operational efficiency and strengthening customer retention.
Put cautiously: for freight forwarders lacking clear differentiators or the necessary IT capabilities, 2026 will be a very challenging year.
Contract logistics: the main growth engine
By contrast, contract logistics is expected to remain the most attractive segment in transport and logistics in 2026. Growth will be supported by continued outsourcing of complex logistics processes, as well as long-term drivers such as e-commerce, nearshoring and more localised inventory strategies.
Market observers expect steady expansion, particularly in automation-intensive warehouses, temperature-controlled logistics and value-added services. Logistics service providers that capitalise on outsourcing opportunities may achieve growth rates above GDP.
Strategic buyers will look for scale combined with the right capabilities, including sector specialisation, cross-border service coverage and automation or technology expertise. Cross-selling and building end-to-end capabilities will remain central considerations.
Private equity investors will remain active, but will increasingly compete with infrastructure capital for high-quality targets offering stable, long-term cash flows. There will also be a focus on targets that can provide ownership of strategic logistics real estate — for example, sites near ports or airports.
Road transport: normalisation rather than a boom
2026 could usher in a period of stabilisation for LTL and industrial road transport, even though structural challenges in North America and Europe will continue. Capacity discipline, improved financing conditions and a gradual recovery in prices — particularly in North America — should support a normalisation of earnings.
In the medium term, driver shortage and the trend towards nearshoring should structurally improve prospects for providers in European inland transport. In addition, decarbonisation may be a meaningful advantage for European carriers able to capture the benefits of transitioning fleets to battery-electric trucks.
Strategic buyers will focus on add-ons that deliver network synergies or provide access to specialised fleets. Private equity is likely to take a selective, operational approach, focusing on carriers with specialised fleets and adjacent service offerings.
Sellers should expect utilisation, margins and the maturity of digital fleet management capabilities to be scrutinised very closely.
Infrastructure capital: a structural shift
Infrastructure investors are set to play a decisive role in M&A transactions. Large pools of long-term capital have a strong appetite for transport and logistics businesses that provide essential services, can demonstrate predictable cash flows, offer inflation protection and hold strong strategic market positions.
Macquarie’s takeover bid for the Australian logistics group Qube Holdings in the fourth quarter of 2025 underscores this trend and shows how infrastructure capital, private equity and strategic buyers are increasingly competing for the same assets. The shift is particularly evident among contract logistics companies serving pharmaceutical and healthcare customers, as well as providers supporting food and frozen goods supply chains. For businesses that match these profiles, this dynamic is likely to support valuation resilience and broaden exit options.
From reset to momentum
Transport and logistics M&A appears to be entering 2026 with greater clarity and confidence than a year ago. The experience of 2025 has reshaped buyer behaviour, and the year is likely to be defined by targeted, high-quality transactions. This is also good news for sellers — provided they are well positioned, clearly differentiated and able to withstand increasingly rigorous scrutiny.
Early-year deal activity across Europe and North America already appears to support this outlook for the months ahead.
About the author
Dirk Engelmann is a Managing Director at the M&A advisory firm Lincoln International in Frankfurt. He holds a leadership role within the Business Services team and specializes in transactions in transport and logistics. Engelmann advises corporate clients and private equity investors on domestic and international mergers and acquisitions.
