This outlook confirms the continuation of single-digit growth, supported by outsourcing, the reconfiguration of global supply chains and ongoing investment in logistics technologies. At the same time, the data suggests that the market is entering a more mature phase. Future growth is likely to be driven more by service development, consolidation and efficiency-enhancing investments than by pure volume increases.
Operators—particularly in developed, low-growth markets—will continue to face price pressure and high operating costs, which are expected to weigh on margins.
Although projected growth for 2026 (4.1%) and the 2025–2029 CAGR (4.2%) exceed global GDP growth, they remain slightly below the average growth rate recorded in 2020–2024, when the market expanded at a compounded rate of 4.6%.
After the strong post-pandemic rebound, the contract logistics sector has largely returned to more “normal” conditions. Nevertheless, new growth drivers are emerging, including in Europe. According to industry experts, geopolitical developments, changes in global trade flows and the ability to scale operational capabilities could create fresh opportunities for the region.
“Geographically, the logistics market in Europe naturally has lower growth potential because its economy is growing more slowly and the contract logistics market is already more mature than in other regions of the world.
Although the growth potential of European contract logistics is lower than in other regions, it remains promising because long-term trends (outsourcing, supply chain modernisation and reorganisation) will remain active. We also believe that geopolitical changes will lead to new needs and opportunities in contract logistics. For example, Chinese retailers will likely launch very large warehouses in Europe – and in particular in Poland – to adapt to new restrictions and obligations regarding imported goods.
Growth opportunities also exist in other markets outside Europe, but they require the right strategy. In the case of ID Logistics, a key element is staying close to our global clients and providing them with solutions based on a ‘core model’ that can be easily replicated, adapted to each country and monitored globally. I mean international clients with whom we started working in one country, who are satisfied with our services and cooperation, and then are keen to open new operations with ID Logistics in other countries, thereby reducing risk and benefiting from capitalised best practices.
In addition, for several years we have been developing our transport, distribution and value-added services as a standalone or complementary offer for our clients, to provide them with comprehensive solutions. Although such services still represent a smaller part of our sales, we see value in them for contractors and significant potential for further growth.
At the ID Logistics Group, our core business remains warehouse and inventory management, where we still see strong growth potential. This is a market that is still far from saturated, where an innovative approach and close customer relationships make it possible to gain share in every geographic area. This segment also remains quite fragmented, so we are still actively looking at potential acquisitions that could accelerate our growth and increase the value of our offer – says Yann Belgy, Managing Director of ID Logistics Poland, which provides comprehensive logistics and transport solutions.
Uneven development of regional markets
Analysts at Transport Intelligence also point out that the contract logistics market is quite clearly divided into mature, low-growth regions and emerging markets, which are characterised by structurally faster momentum. Among the key areas, i.e. Asia-Pacific, North America and Europe, unfortunately the Old Continent has recorded the weakest results for several years, due not only to the maturity of the contract segment but also to prolonged macroeconomic problems in the major economies. The result is low growth, driven primarily by contract renewals, automation and value-added services, rather than direct volume growth.
North America performs better in this respect, with its moderate growth profile supported by greater structural resilience. It is also helped by economic growth and support coming from the e-commerce sector. According to Forrester analyses, the share of e-commerce in total retail trade in the US will reach 29% in 2030, corresponding to revenues of USD 1.8 trillion. Forecasts for 2025 indicate a 24% share and e-commerce sales value of USD 1.2 trillion.
This is certainly an important piece of the puzzle that also helps in Europe, but the contract market in North America will also face certain constraints, resulting, among other things, from susceptibility to macroeconomic cyclicality and a high level of logistics outsourcing penetration, which narrows the scope for dynamic growth. Nor can the unpredictability of customs and trade policies be overlooked.
The Asia-Pacific region consistently maintains its leading position and acts as the global growth engine for the contract logistics market, supported by solid GDP growth, the trend of production relocation, decent consumption indicators and a strong logistics outsourcing trend. The leading positions in this part of the world are held by China and India, which drive both regional and global growth.
Contract logistics momentum is reflected in global GDP and trade
A hallmark of contract logistics is its dependence on macroeconomic trends, which is why the moderate growth rate of global GDP and trade—both around 3%—affects volumes in key sectors for the industry, including industrial and consumer goods. The continuing weaker momentum will further moderate demand for logistics services, the development of new distribution networks and value-added services. This impact will be particularly visible in developed economies.
However, conditions conducive to GDP growth—and thus also to contract logistics—are emerging on the horizon, including easing inflation and interest rate cuts, which reduce operating costs while also promoting investment, including in process automation and digitalisation.
The dependence of the contract logistics industry on GDP and trade is well reflected in the macroeconomic outlook presented by the most important international institutions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) January forecast assumes global GDP growth of 3.3% in 2025 and 2026, and 3.2% a year later. These results are slightly better than the October data, when 2026 momentum was estimated at 3.1%. Among the key positive factors driving growth, the Fund cites, among others, potential benefits from investment in AI and improved access to financing. This partly offsets the negative impact of escalating trade and geopolitical tensions, which, according to numerous analyses, are the main growth barrier across the entire supply chain.
Economic forecasts for 2026 confirm regional dependencies
Momentum in regional markets is well reflected, among other things, in IMF data for China, which is expected to grow at 4.5% and 4% over the next two years. India is expected to maintain growth of 6.4%. In both cases, these are growth engines for the contract logistics market not only in Asia, but also globally. On the other side of the Pacific, US growth was estimated at 2.4% and 2%, which is also visible in contract logistics forecasts. In the euro area, problems still dominate, which is reflected in economic growth of 1.3% and 1.4%. Poland, on the other hand, is performing clearly better than the euro area, with GDP expected to grow at 3.5% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027. For the current year, this is 0.4 percentage points higher than the October assumptions; however, next year, according to the IMF, brings a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points.
As you can see, the regional pattern of indicators almost exactly corresponds to the situation in the contract logistics sector. The fastest-growing economies are located in Asia, followed by North America and Europe. Given the current unpredictability of geopolitical conditions, the situation in the coming years may still change dramatically, but for now—taking into account the high probability of sudden twists on the international stage—the IMF forecast presents the condition of global trade quite favourably. Its growth is estimated at 2.6% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. Developed economies will grow at 1.9% and 2.4%, and this will be clearly weaker momentum than in emerging markets and among developing economies, where trade is expected to gain 3.6% this year and 4.4% in 2027.
The announced growth does not mean a lack of serious challenges
In January, the World Bank also published its trade data, according to which it is expected to grow at 2.2% and 2.7% in 2026–2027 respectively, which is a clear slowdown from 2025, when trade gained 3.4%. The Bank, however, points to GDP, whose growth this year is assumed at 2.6% and 2.7% in 2027, emphasising that if this forecast holds, the current decade is expected to be the weakest since the 1960s. According to World Bank analyses, while in 2025 the global economy was driven by trade surges resulting from fears of tariff introductions and the reconfiguration of global supply chains, this mechanism is unlikely to occur in 2026, when both trade and domestic demand are expected to slow.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) is also concerned about economic conditions; according to it, global growth will remain sluggish, which will slow trade prospects and investment flows. UNCTAD estimates that global GDP will hold at 2.6% in 2025 and 2026, despite potential benefits coming from AI. The organisation is worried about rising protectionism, noting that the weighted average tariff rate in manufacturing increased by 4.7% in 2025, and governments—especially the US—will continue to use tariff barriers as a tool to pursue industrial and strategic objectives. Such significant changes in trade policy will trigger a cascade of adverse phenomena, increasing uncertainty, discouraging investment and disrupting supply chains—something contract logistics will certainly feel.
The continuing weaker momentum will further moderate demand for logistics services, the development of new distribution networks and value-added services. This impact will be particularly visible in developed economies, especially as Brexit-related frictions continue to affect cross-border trade patterns.
