Corporate insolvencies in Germany are expected to rise by 8% in 2026 to approximately 25,900 cases, according to Allianz Trade’s ‘Global Insolvencies Outlook 2028’, published on 27 October 2026. The forecast is considerably more pessimistic than the estimate issued in the spring, when the insurer expected an increase of just 2%.
Corporate insolvencies in Germany are expected to rise significantly in 2026, reaching 25,900 cases. That would be the highest level in 13 years, says Milo Bogaerts, CEO of Allianz Trade in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Transport and logistics, construction, hospitality, as well as the automotive and mechanical engineering industries are particularly affected.
The latest figures from across Europe point in the same direction. Eurostat recorded an 11.4% quarter-on-quarter increase in bankruptcy declarations in the EU transport sector during the second quarter of 2026. Across all sectors, the increase was 5.7%.
Germany: insolvencies now 30% above pre-crisis levels
Germany’s insolvency figures have been climbing for several years. Allianz Trade recorded 17,814 corporate insolvencies in 2023, followed by 21,812 in 2024 and 24,064 in 2025.
The insurer expects the total to reach 25,900 cases in 2026. That would represent an increase of roughly 85% compared with 2021, while the figure would be around 30% above the average recorded between 2016 and 2019.
The trend reflects the continuing challenges facing the German economy. Allianz Trade points to a combination of weak economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty, high energy and operating costs, and structural problems such as labour shortages.
The outlook for 2027 offers little relief. Allianz Trade expects insolvencies to remain at around 25,900 cases. Holding steady at that level would not amount to a recovery; it would mean that insolvencies remained at their highest point since 2013.
Transport and storage: insolvencies rising faster than across the economy
The sector breakdown in the Allianz Trade report highlights the particular vulnerability of transport and logistics. During the first half of 2026, insolvencies in Germany’s transport and storage sector increased by 8% year on year. Across the economy as a whole, the corresponding increase was 5%.
Hospitality recorded an even sharper rise of 14%. Insolvencies increased by 6% in retail and 2% in construction, while manufacturing registered a modest 1% decline.
The Eurostat data for the first two quarters of 2026 also underline the strain on transport businesses across Europe.
After the seasonally adjusted number of bankruptcy declarations in the EU fell by 2.4% in the first quarter of 2026, the number rebounded by 5.7% in the second quarter. The EU insolvency index consequently reached its highest level since the comparable series began in 2019.
The increase was particularly pronounced in transport, where bankruptcy declarations rose by 11.4% in the second quarter. By comparison, declarations fell by 1.7% in construction and 1.2% in retail over the same period.
These figures measure seasonally adjusted quarterly changes and should not be directly compared with Allianz Trade’s half-year comparisons or annual forecasts. They nevertheless show that insolvency pressure is becoming increasingly uneven across the European economy.
Romania and Belgium illustrate the pressure on road freight
The situation in Romania and Belgium shows how severe the pressure has become in individual road freight markets. trans.iNFO reported on both developments in detail in October.
In Romania, Sierra Quadrant, a company specialising in insolvency and restructuring, reported a 73% year-on-year increase in road freight insolvencies in September 2026. Across the country, 869 new insolvency proceedings involving companies and self-employed operators were registered that month, the highest monthly figure seen in several years.
The analysis identifies higher energy costs, weaker demand, increased taxes and more expensive financing as key drivers. Sierra Quadrant expects pressure on businesses to peak in the first quarter of 2027.
The Allianz Trade study also points to a difficult economic environment in Romania. It forecasts a 9% increase in corporate insolvencies in 2026, bringing the total to approximately 8,200 cases.
In Belgium, the crisis is particularly visible among smaller transport companies. According to a report by trans.iNFO citing the Belgian Institute for Road Transport and Logistics (ITLB), 297 freight carriers became insolvent during the first nine months of 2026, compared with 284 in the same period of 2025.
Small fleets were disproportionately affected. Of the 80 failed businesses for which third-quarter data were available, 58 operated no more than five vehicles.
The industry association Transport & Logistiek Vlaanderen (TLV) highlights rising operating costs, limited room to increase freight rates and unpaid customer invoices as major sources of pressure.
At the same time, Allianz Trade expects Belgium’s overall number of insolvencies to remain broadly unchanged at around 11,700 cases in 2026. This contrast shows that a relatively stable national picture can conceal serious problems in individual sectors.
Europe’s insolvency picture is becoming increasingly uneven
Allianz Trade’s international comparison shows that insolvency trends are diverging across Europe.
While Germany, Romania and France are expected to record higher numbers, the credit insurer forecasts declines in several other important markets for transport and logistics.
Corporate insolvencies in Europe: 2025 results and 2026 forecast
| Country | Insolvencies in 2025 | Expected insolvencies in 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 24,064 | 25,900 | +8% |
| France | 68,688 | 71,000 | +3% |
| Romania | 7,553 | 8,200 | +9% |
| Belgium | 11,685 | 11,700 | 0% |
| Italy | 12,093 | 11,850 | −2% |
| Spain | 5,604 | 5,470 | −2% |
| Poland | 5,492 | 5,200 | −5% |
| Hungary | 14,388 | 11,300 | −21% |
| United Kingdom | 26,745 | 25,600 | −4% |
Source: Allianz Trade, ‘Global Insolvencies Outlook 2028’, 27 October 2026. 2025 figures are taken from the study; 2026 figures are forecasts. All sectors are included. National insolvency statistics are only partially comparable because procedures differ between countries.
The contrast between Germany and Hungary is particularly striking. While corporate insolvencies are expected to continue rising in Germany, Allianz Trade forecasts a 21% decline in Hungary.
Poland is also expected to see a 5% decrease. Italy and Spain could record lower totals as well.
France presents a different picture. The credit insurer expects approximately 71,000 corporate insolvencies there in 2026, representing a new record. A further, modest increase to around 71,400 cases is forecast for 2027.
However, a decline in insolvencies does not necessarily signal a return to stable economic conditions. In several countries, figures remain well above pre-crisis levels.
For transport and logistics companies operating internationally, the situation in their home market is therefore only one part of the risk picture. The financial health of customers and business partners in overseas markets is just as important.
Energy costs could put severe pressure on road transport margins
Allianz Research identifies the combination of high energy prices and difficult financing conditions as one of the main reasons economic pressure continues.
A model calculated by the analysts illustrates the possible impact of energy costs, which have risen by around 60% since January 2026.
Transport is among the sectors most exposed to this development. For European road transport, the calculations indicate a potential reduction in net margins of around 10 percentage points. The corresponding figure is 15 percentage points for road transport in the United States and approximately 17 percentage points for air transport in both Europe and the United States.
These are theoretical upper limits, not measured margin losses already experienced by every company. The actual impact will depend, among other things, on whether operators can pass higher costs on through their rates or offset them with efficiency measures.
The risk for transport companies is nevertheless substantial. Higher fuel and operating costs immediately increase the expense of providing transport services. If operators cannot recover those additional costs through freight rates or contractual price adjustments, margins will come under pressure.
Financing costs add another layer of risk. Allianz Research calculates that a one-percentage-point increase in bank lending rates would add approximately €7 billion to the annual interest bill of German companies as a whole.
Small and medium-sized businesses are particularly exposed, as are companies that already have limited financial headroom.
Large corporate failures raise the risk of supply-chain domino effects
Smaller businesses are not the only ones facing growing difficulties. Allianz Trade recorded 376 insolvencies worldwide during the first nine months of 2026 among companies with annual revenue above €50 million.
That equates to more than one major corporate insolvency every 18 hours on average. Western Europe accounted for 229 of those cases.
The transport sector is showing a similar trend. Between January and September 2026, 18 larger transport companies became insolvent worldwide, including 12 in Western Europe. Only 11 such cases were recorded globally during the whole of 2025.
Analysts warn that these large corporate failures could trigger domino effects throughout supply chains. When a large company becomes unable to pay its debts, suppliers, subcontractors and service providers can also be pushed into financial trouble.
For freight forwarders and carriers, this creates an additional threat. Even with a healthy order book, unpaid invoices or delayed payments from major customers can put pressure on liquidity.
The discussion in Belgium about protecting subcontractors, covered by trans.iNFO in October, showed how concrete this risk can be. After logistics company Ziegler became insolvent, TLV said smaller carriers were also left with unpaid invoices for transport services they had already completed.
The association is calling for Belgian legislation modelled on France’s Loi Gayssot. Under certain conditions, that system allows carriers to seek direct payment from the shipper or consignee.
239,000 jobs at risk in Germany
The impact of rising insolvencies extends beyond the companies directly affected.
Allianz Research estimates that around 2.7 million jobs worldwide could be directly at risk from corporate insolvencies in each of 2026 and 2027. That is approximately 180,000 more jobs per year than in 2025.
Europe accounts for around 1.6 million of the potentially affected jobs. The greatest risks are estimated in France, with approximately 268,000 jobs, Germany with 239,000 and the United Kingdom with 213,000.
These are model-based estimates of potentially affected employees, not confirmed or inevitable job losses.
No quick relief in sight: a turnaround is not expected until 2028
Allianz Trade does not expect a rapid return to normal conditions in the coming years.
The global insolvency index is forecast to rise by 5% in 2026 and another 1% in 2027. Analysts expect a modest 1% decline only in 2028.
In Germany, insolvencies could fall by 5% in 2028 to approximately 24,600 cases. Allianz Trade cites easing economic pressure and the growing impact of fiscal measures as possible reasons for the improvement.
Even then, Germany would remain far from its pre-pandemic insolvency level.
For transport and logistics companies, their own costs and access to financing will therefore not be the only decisive factors. With large corporate failures becoming more common and European markets moving in different directions, the financial stability of customers and business partners is becoming increasingly important.
Sources: Allianz Research, ‘Global Insolvencies Outlook 2028’, 27 October 2026; Allianz Trade press release dated 27 October 2026; Eurostat, ‘Quarterly registrations of new businesses and declarations of bankruptcies’, Q1 and Q2 2026; trans.iNFO reporting on corporate insolvencies in Romania and Belgium in October 2026.
