Container rates start rising as the Middle East crisis adds pressure to Asia-Europe trade

To understand why the rate reaction matters, it helps to trace the three distinct phases the China–Europe container market has passed through since mid-February.

In the first phase, the market was simply following its seasonal script. The post-Lunar New Year lull was pushing rates lower across the board. Freightos data showed Asia–North Europe spot rates at around $2,400 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), while Asia–Mediterranean prices had fallen to roughly $3,600 per FEU. The Iran escalation on 26 February barely registered in the numbers.

In the second phase – the week or so immediately after the escalation – the market entered a period of uneasy stability. Operational disruption was visible: vessels were rerouting away from the Red Sea corridor, ports in the Gulf were under pressure, and carriers were adding surcharges to affected trades. But on the main east-west lanes connecting Asia to Europe, rates held or continued to drift lower. The financial signal had not yet caught up with the physical reality.

When the rates finally moved

The third phase began in early March and is still playing out. The sequence of data releases over the past two weeks tells the story with some precision.

The first sharp move came on Gulf-related trades, where the operational disruption was most direct. Freightos reported that rates from Shanghai to Jebel Ali jumped from roughly $1,800 to more than $4,000 per FEU within days of the latest escalation.

On the main Europe-facing lanes, the reaction was slower but became increasingly clear. By 5 March, Xeneta reported that average spot rates from China to the UK were already 9% above their pre-escalation level, with Far East–North Europe prices at $2,338 per FEU and Far East–Mediterranean rates at $3,570 per FEU.

By 10 March, Freightos reported that Asia-Europe rates had risen 6% week on week to around $2,600 per FEU, with Asia-Mediterranean prices up 2% to about $3,700 per FEU. Two days later, Drewry’s World Container Index recorded a sharper move: Shanghai-Rotterdam rose 19% week on week to $2,443 per forty-foot container, while Shanghai-Genoa climbed 10% to $3,120 per container. Drewry said it expected spot rates to continue rising in the coming weeks.

Table 1. How China-Europe container rates changed over the last 2-3 weeks

Date	Route	Rate	Change	What it shows	Source
17 Feb	Asia to North Europe	about $2,400/FEU	-5% WoW	Market was still softening before the latest escalation	Freightos
17 Feb	Asia to Mediterranean	about $3,600/FEU	-4% WoW	Mediterranean market was also still easing	Freightos
5 Mar	Far East to North Europe	$2,338/FEU	n/a	Shows rate level after escalation, but no direct percentage move given	Xeneta
5 Mar	Far East to Mediterranean	$3,570/FEU	n/a	Mediterranean rate level after escalation	Xeneta
10 Mar	Asia to Europe	about $2,600/FEU	6% WoW	Early March rebound becomes visible	Freightos
10 Mar	Asia to Mediterranean	about $3,700/FEU	2% WoW	Mediterranean also firms, but less sharply	Freightos
12 Mar	Shanghai to Rotterdam	$2,443/40ft	19% WoW	Strong jump on a named Europe lane	Drewry
12 Mar	Shanghai to Genoa	$3,120/40ft	10% WoW	Italy-relevant route also rises clearly	Drewry

What is driving the increase

The increase appears to reflect several overlapping pressures rather than a single cause. War-risk surcharges on vessels transiting near conflict zones have added a direct cost layer. Longer effective routings – ships diverting away from the Red Sea and around the Cape of Good Hope – increase voyage times and fuel consumption. Container imbalances, caused in part by equipment stranded in Gulf ports, are tightening availability across global trade routes.

Freightos has cautioned, however, that part of the rebound also reflects carriers’ usual post-Chinese New Year push to firm up rates. Not all of the current increase should be attributed solely to geopolitical risk.

The view from Italy and European ports

Italian container logistics specialist Sogese has outlined what it describes as a three-layer cost impact on European shippers: longer routes, higher risk premiums, and container imbalances. The company warns this could result in a two-to-three times longer supply chain recovery time for affected shippers compared with a typical disruption cycle.

In Italy specifically, Sogese points to mounting pressure at the ports of Livorno, Salerno and Trieste, where high yard utilisation, labour disruption and uneven vessel arrivals are adding strain to local logistics chains. The company noted that the Shanghai-Genoa route was already trading at around $2,800 per forty-foot container in early March, before the further increase recorded in Drewry’s latest figures.

How Europe compares to the US

Table 2. Europe reacted more sharply than US lanes
Date	Route	Rate	Change	Source
12 Mar	Shanghai to Rotterdam	$2,443/40ft	19% WoW	Drewry
12 Mar	Shanghai to Genoa	$3,120/40ft	10% WoW	Drewry
12 Mar	Shanghai to Los Angeles	$2,503/40ft	4% WoW	Drewry
12 Mar	Shanghai to New York	$3,080/40ft	3% WoW	Drewry

The rate reaction is not confined to Europe, though it is currently most pronounced on Europe-facing lanes. Drewry’s latest figures showed Shanghai–Los Angeles up 4% to $2,503 per forty-foot container and Shanghai–New York up 3% to $3,080 per container.

The more modest increases on transpacific routes suggest that the current disruption is weighing most heavily on carriers and shippers exposed to the Europe corridor – the corridor most directly affected by disruption around the Red Sea and Gulf region.