The war in Iran has already found its way into European road freight through the fuel card. Across the continent, diesel prices moved sharply in the first week of March, and the direction of travel is clear. In Germany, ADAC’s daily average pushed diesel above the €2/l threshold, with warnings that prices could climb further if crude remains elevated. In the UK, the RAC reported diesel rising faster than petrol. In parts of central and eastern Europe, local price analysts recorded the strongest week-on-week jumps seen so far this year.
The transmission route from the Gulf to European forecourts runs through two numbers that explain the vulnerability. According to analysis from the ifo Institute and EconPol, around 6.2% of the EU’s non-EU crude oil imports and 8.7% of its LNG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not a dominant share, but it is large enough that any sustained disruption to the waterway lifts global energy prices, which then flow directly into transport diesel costs.
The same analysis offers a useful corrective to some of the broader rhetoric: Iran’s direct role in European trade is small, a consequence of sanctions and limited integration into Western supply chains. The real exposure is energy, not goods, and energy costs land first and hardest on road freight.
The shipping signal hauliers should watch
Before diesel moves, bunker fuel moves. It is the shipping industry’s largest variable input and reprices faster than most contracts. Transport Intelligence (Ti) reports that global IFO 380 bunker prices rose $41.5 per metric tonne in a single week — from $468/mt on 23 February to $509.5/mt on 2 March, an 8.9% increase — with the sharpest gains in Asia-Pacific and a clear rise across EMEA. The move preceded the diesel spike on European forecourts by days.
The bunker rise matters beyond shipping because it signals what energy markets are pricing in. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have both announced restrictions on bookings linked to parts of the Gulf; a rare operational step for carriers whose model depends on keeping flows moving. When carriers start restricting bookings rather than just adding surcharges, it reflects a level of uncertainty about operating conditions that takes time to resolve.
The dual chokepoint risk
The Strait of Hormuz
Analysts tracking the conflict have identified two waterways that matter for European logistics, each working through a different channel. The Strait of Hormuz is the energy choke point: disruption there drives fuel and input costs. Bab al-Mandab — the gateway between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden — is the scheduled choke point: disruption there, as seen during the Houthi attacks on shipping in 2024, forces vessels onto the Cape of Good Hope route, adding 10–14 days each way and effectively shrinking available fleet capacity by 10–15%.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Strait of Hormuz – OpenStreetMap
Analysis warns that if the Houthis broaden their involvement in the current conflict, Europe could face simultaneous pressure on both corridors. Fuel price spikes raise costs immediately; delays and diversions reduce effective capacity, which then raises costs again. The two channels compound rather than cancel.
The working capital problem
Italy offers the clearest early case study because industry groups there have put hard numbers on the change. Trade bodies have pointed to what they describe as “speculative” pass-through — fuel sold at prices that appear to anticipate sustained crude increases rather than reflect stock purchased at earlier prices. Combined with the timing of excise rebates, this creates a cash-flow gap that lands on operators before any rate adjustment can compensate.
This liquidity angle is often absent from macro discussions of fuel costs, but it is central to how a shock of this kind damages the road freight market. Larger operators can absorb a spike for weeks and negotiate surcharges. Smaller carriers, running tighter working capital cycles, feel the squeeze immediately. The risk is not that supply chains break — it is that capacity quietly exits the market, concentrating around cargo that can pay a premium while marginal flows drop.
