Transport Intelligence (Ti) estimates the global e-commerce logistics market grew strongly between 2022 and 2025, but says tighter treatment of low-value imports is likely to increase duties, compliance costs and customs friction for cross-border parcel flows. With the United States already moving first and Europe expected to follow from mid-2026, operators may face a shift in where volumes and capacity are needed.
Despite the attention on international trade routes, Ti’s figures underline that e-commerce logistics remains largely domestic. The analyst estimates domestic e-commerce logistics rose from €336.7bn in 2022 to €486.0bn in 2025, compared with cross-border logistics growing from €63.3bn to €96.1bn. Over the period, domestic activity accounted for roughly 84–85% of total market value, leaving cross-border at around 15–16% — a split that matters for hauliers because the biggest competition for capacity and rates still sits in domestic linehaul and regional distribution.
The US precedent: a structural headwind for Asian flows
Ti points to the US as an early signal of what regulatory change can do to cross-border parcel economics. In August 2025, the US removed its $800 de minimis threshold, a move Ti says increases the cost and friction of handling low-value imports, particularly for high-volume parcel flows from Asia. The implication for European operators is not direct exposure to the US market, but the precedent: low-value cross-border models can be affected quickly when customs treatment changes.
Europe 2026: preparing for the customs friction shock
Europe could face a similar adjustment from mid-2026, Ti says, as the EU tightens controls on low-value consignments and moves away from simplified treatment for small parcels. For transport companies and logistics providers, the operational impact is uncertain. Higher compliance costs could reduce demand for the lowest-value imports, cutting throughput in networks designed around high parcel volumes. Equally, tighter border processes could encourage more regional fulfilment inside the EU, supporting demand for EU-based trunking, hub-to-hub transport and warehouse-linked distribution.
Ti’s forecast suggests overall growth continues even as the framework changes. Domestic e-commerce logistics is projected to rise from €486.0bn in 2025 to €516.2bn in 2026 and €653.4bn by 2030. Cross-border logistics is forecast at €96.1bn in 2025, €101.8bn in 2026, and €129.4bn by 2030. By 2030, Ti expects the market split to remain broadly similar at around 83–84% domestic and 16–17% cross-border, reinforcing the importance of domestic road networks — particularly the middle-mile linking fulfilment centres, parcel hubs and regional depots.
