After the December delivery rush, the transport and logistics sector enters a second, increasingly demanding phase of the season. Early January brings a surge in returns, placing additional pressure on logistics teams and forwarders through higher volumes, warehouse congestion and rising transport costs.
Data from the Globkurier logistics platform show that return volumes in January are 25–30% higher than in an average month. Over the longer term, the trend is even more pronounced: during the past three years, the number of shipments marked “return to sender” has increased by around 140%. This suggests the shift is structural rather than a one-off anomaly in e-commerce.
The pattern is particularly visible in the fashion sector, where return rates climb from around 30% in December to as much as 50–55% in January. In electronics, return volumes are lower, but the financial impact can be more severe – a single return of a high-value device can significantly affect the results of both the seller and the logistics operator.
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Returns as a costly problem
Rising return volumes are directly driving up logistics costs. Globally, the returns logistics market was worth nearly $665bn last year and is expected to exceed $954bn by 2029. This scale underlines that returns logistics is no longer a marginal process supporting online sales.
The challenge lies not only in the number of parcels, but in the complexity of handling them. Each returned shipment generates additional operations: receiving, identification, condition assessment, cleaning, repackaging, deciding on the next destination for the goods, and updating inventory systems. Industry experts point out that processing a return often costs more than the original delivery.
“After all, it’s not enough to send the goods back; they also need to go through a whole range of additional activities, including condition verification, cleaning or repackaging,” notes Dr hab. Arkadiusz Kawa, Director of the Łukasiewicz – Poznań Institute of Technology, in a conversation with Trans.INFO.
Warehouses and transport under pressure from returns
For warehouse logistics, January brings a sharp change in work patterns. Outbound sales shipments give way to inbound returns, often arriving in large volumes over a short period. This increases demand for warehouse space and puts inventory management systems under strain.
“We’re talking primarily about WMS systems, which enable efficient management of warehouse space, including return handling, as well as tools used to optimise warehouse capacity,” explains Piotr Susz, CEO and senior consultant at Locura.
From a transport perspective, the challenge is the accumulation of short, dispersed return shipments that are difficult to predict. This complicates route planning, increases the number of empty runs and raises unit transport costs, particularly in the first weeks of the year.
Flexibility instead of loyalty to a single operator
Logistics platforms stress that flexibility is the key to coping with the January wave of returns. Models based on cooperation with multiple carriers allow companies to respond more quickly to changing volumes and redirect traffic to where operational capacity is available.
“January exposes how resilient a company’s operations really are: those with well-structured returns processes maintain continuity and positive customer reviews. Those without them end up paying for the chaos,” emphasises Mateusz Pycia, CEO of Globkurier, a logistics platform that intermediates courier services.
From the perspective of logistics platforms, the post-Christmas returns peak becomes visible earlier than at individual online stores, as traffic from multiple carriers is consolidated within a single system. This makes it possible to flag capacity constraints sooner and adjust operational plans in advance.
A new supply chain quality parameter
The growing scale of returns is also influencing consumer purchasing decisions. Market data show that 74% of customers abandon a purchase if the returns process is unclear or overly complicated. As a result, the efficiency of returns handling has become a competitive factor rather than simply a cost item.
“Returns management is no longer just an operational challenge for warehouses. It has become a strategic battleground for margins, cash flow and customer loyalty,” says Dariusz Mikołajczak, Business Development Manager – Supply Chain at Euvic, a technology group providing IT services for the logistics sector.
The industry is coping better – but unevenly
Available data indicate that the transport industry has learned to manage this second seasonal surge, treating January as a fully fledged peak in logistics operations. Flexibility, automation and a move away from rigid cooperation models have proved critical.
At the same time, differences between market players remain clear. Logistics platforms and operators with standardised processes are the best prepared, while companies that still treat returns as an occasional disruption rather than a permanent feature of the supply chain face the greatest difficulties.
