The study compares battery-electric and diesel long-haul trucks across nine EU markets: the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, France, Belgium, Poland, Spain and Italy. T&E says markets where electric trucks can already offer a financial advantage account for 46% of new heavy-truck sales in the EU.
The largest savings are calculated for the Netherlands, where a European-made electric truck bought in 2026 could cost around €100,000 less to own and operate over five years than its diesel equivalent.
Germany follows with savings of about €85,000, while Denmark offers roughly €70,000. T&E estimates a two-year payback period in the Netherlands and Germany, while Denmark reaches payback after around three years.
Sweden also produces a positive result, with estimated five-year savings of €42,000 and a four-year payback period. In France, current subsidies of up to €107,000 per electric truck help produce savings of around €50,000 over five years.
The picture is much less favourable elsewhere. In Poland, an electric truck remains around €16,000 more expensive over five years, despite purchase subsidies. The gap rises to €47,000 in Spain and €94,000 in Italy. T&E links much of the difference to the absence of CO2-based toll discounts and other support measures in those markets.
Belgium sits close to parity: under the model, a European-made electric truck remains around €6,000 more expensive over five years, although a cheaper Chinese electric truck already achieves payback after three years.
High mileage and toll savings matter
The findings are based on a five-year first-ownership period and assume annual mileage of 116,000 km for 5-LH long-haul trucks. T&E assumes a European 5-LH diesel truck costs €120,000 to buy, compared with €265,000 for a European battery-electric model and €210,000 for a Chinese electric truck.
That large upfront price difference means national policies have a significant effect on the outcome.
Germany, for example, currently exempts zero-emission trucks from road tolls until June 2031 and imposes a CO2 charge on diesel trucks. The Netherlands combines favourable toll treatment with purchase and charging support and RED III electricity credits. France’s positive result is heavily influenced by its purchase subsidy.
T&E also assumes depot charging, with a 150 kW charger shared by two electric trucks overnight. Electricity prices used in the model vary considerably between countries, from around €0.10/kWh in Sweden to €0.23/kWh in Germany.
Diesel price surge widens the gap
The organisation has also modelled the impact of the recent rise in diesel prices. Its calculator allows a 20% diesel-price premium for 2026–27, reflecting the increase in fuel costs since March.
Under the higher-diesel-price scenario, T&E says five-year savings could increase from €100,000 to €123,000 in the Netherlands, and from €85,000 to €106,000 in Germany.
Looking further ahead, T&E estimates that electric trucks could achieve a lower TCO than diesel in all nine countries by 2030 if existing EU measures continue and further measures, including CO2-based road tolling and RED III electricity credits, are implemented. Its modelling assumes that some of today’s vehicle purchase subsidies will be reduced or phased out by then.
T&E has also launched an interactive TCO calculator allowing operators to compare electric and diesel truck costs and alter policy assumptions for individual markets.
