Key takeaways:
- Sogese believes part of Europe’s traditional peak-season demand was brought forward into late Q2 and early Q3.
- A weaker-than-usual fourth-quarter restocking wave could place renewed downward pressure on freight rates.
- Drewry’s global container index has stabilised after retreating from its July high.
- Almost four in ten container ships arrived outside their published schedules in June.
- Rotterdam handled more Asian imports, although its total container throughput remained broadly flat.
- Sogese sees demand normalisation as the most likely of three scenarios for the rest of 2026.
A portion of Europe’s peak-season demand shifted into late spring and summer as importers placed orders earlier in response to tariff and geopolitical uncertainty, according to the August 2026 Europe Container Market Update from Italian container logistics provider Sogese.
The company expects demand to normalise during the fourth quarter as its base-case scenario. If much of the cargo normally shipped later in the year has already entered the supply chain, freight rates could come under further pressure as inventories rebalance and more effective vessel capacity becomes available. However, Sogese stresses that this is a forecast rather than a certainty. Carrier capacity management, inventory levels and any fresh geopolitical or trade-policy disruption could still change the direction of the market.
Early ordering leaves the fourth quarter exposed
Peak-season demand has traditionally been concentrated around a more clearly defined period as European importers build inventories ahead of the autumn and Christmas trading seasons. Sogese argues that this pattern has become less predictable in 2026.
Earlier procurement decisions, continued diversions around the Cape of Good Hope and uncertainty over tariffs and geopolitics have encouraged some importers to move orders sooner. Instead of one concentrated peak, the pressure has been spread over several months.
“Peak season used to test how much capacity a business could secure. Today it tests how consistently it can execute,” said Andrea Monti, CEO and managing director of Sogese. “The companies that perform best this year will not necessarily move more containers. They will make fewer planning revisions, position inventory earlier, and sustain operational discipline for longer.”
The shift has consequences beyond ocean freight. Longer periods of elevated warehouse utilisation, unpredictable ship arrivals and repeated changes to collection schedules can also affect terminals, hauliers and other inland logistics providers.
The key question is whether the earlier orders represent additional demand or simply cargo moved forward from the fourth quarter. Sogese favours the latter explanation, arguing that the front-loading was driven more by uncertainty than by a sustained increase in underlying consumption.
Freight rates retreat from their July high
Drewry’s World Container Index reached $4,639 per 40ft container on 9 July before falling to $4,255 on 30 July. That represented a decline of approximately 8.3% over the three-week period. However, more recent figures indicate that the market has not continued falling in a straight line. The index rose by 1% to $4,297 on 6 August, ending three consecutive weeks of decline. The increase was largely supported by transpacific routes rather than the European market.
On the Asia–Europe trade, spot rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam remained unchanged at $4,653 per 40ft container, while Shanghai–Genoa rates declined by 2% to $5,506. Drewry said three blank sailings had been recorded on Asia–Europe services during the week, with the same number scheduled for the following week. It is expected that rates on the trade will remain stable in the short term as carriers continue managing available capacity.
The figures therefore do not yet show the more pronounced fourth-quarter correction envisaged in Sogese’s base case. They do, however, illustrate how much the market’s direction now depends on the balance between demand and carriers’ willingness to withdraw capacity.
More ships do not necessarily mean more usable capacity
The global container fleet is expected to expand by between 5% and 6% this year, but nominal fleet growth does not translate directly into the same increase in usable capacity. Sogese estimates that close to one-fifth of nominal capacity is currently not reaching the market effectively. It attributes much of the gap to vessels continuing to sail around the Cape of Good Hope, as well as slow steaming and congestion.
According to its assessment, Cape routing alone absorbs around 2.5 million TEU of capacity and adds between one and two weeks to affected journeys. These estimates are Sogese’s own and should not be interpreted as an industry-wide consensus.
The resulting market can appear contradictory: more vessels are entering service, while some routes still experience tight and unpredictable effective capacity. A change in demand could therefore have a disproportionately large effect on rates if ships or slots currently absorbed by disruption return to the market.
“Europe’s logistics system has become considerably more resilient over the past two years, but resilience should not be mistaken for normalisation,” Monti said. “The network is performing because operators have adapted, not because the underlying operating environment has fundamentally improved.”
Almost four in ten ships still arrive late
Schedule reliability weakened in June, adding another layer of uncertainty for European supply chains. According to Sea-Intelligence figures cited by Sogese, global schedule reliability fell from 64.5% in May to 62.6% in June. This meant that 37.4%, or nearly four in every ten vessel arrivals, missed their published schedules.
The average delay for late ships nevertheless improved, falling from 5.65 to 5.31 days.
Performance also varied substantially between shipping lines. Maersk led the 13 largest carriers with reliability of 77.1%, followed by Hapag-Lloyd at 75.6% and MSC at 72.1%. Only three of the 13 exceeded 70%.
The gap was even wider at alliance level. Gemini Cooperation achieved schedule reliability of 93.4%, compared with 53.6% for Premier Alliance.
Rotterdam’s Asian imports rise while overall volumes remain flat
The Port of Rotterdam’s first-half figures provide some evidence that import demand on core Asian routes remained strong. Deep-sea container volumes increased by 5.2% in TEU terms, supported by an 8% rise in imports from Asia. However, total container throughput was virtually unchanged, declining by 0.1%, as transhipment volumes fell by 20%.
The figures show that stronger imports on one part of the network do not automatically produce equivalent growth in total port volumes. Capacity constraints and shifts in transhipment traffic can substantially change the overall result. They are also consistent with earlier ordering, although they do not prove that volumes were front-loaded. Higher imports could also reflect inventory rebuilding or stronger underlying demand.
Three scenarios for the remainder of 2026
Sogese sets out three possible paths for the rest of the year:
- Its base case is demand normalisation. Under this scenario, a substantial proportion of summer demand proves to have been brought forward. Freight rates decline further in the fourth quarter as inventories rebalance, while carriers respond with blank sailings and network adjustments to limit the correction.
- The second possibility is disciplined stability. If shipping lines maintain the capacity controls seen during the summer, rates could ease more gradually and remain above their longer-term averages.
- The third is renewed volatility. A fresh geopolitical shock or trade-policy change could prompt another wave of early bookings, keeping both freight rates and schedule reliability under pressure.
“The real question is not whether disruption continues. It is how the market behaves once this peak unwinds,” Monti said.
