Exports from Germany to the United States fell sharply once again in July 2025. With goods valued at 11.1 billion euros, they were, after calendar and seasonal adjustments, 7.9 percent below the previous month’s level and 14.1 percent lower than in July 2024, reported the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). This marked the lowest export value to the US since December 2021.
The primary cause is the 15 percent US tariffs on most imports from the EU, effective as of August 7th. In June, US President Donald Trump had already raised tariffs on steel and aluminium to 50 percent.
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Burden on export industry
The President of the Federation of Wholesale, Foreign Trade, Services (BGA), Dirk Jandura, critically assessed the situation:
“The fourth consecutive decline with our key trading partner shows how painful US trade policy is for our exporters.”
He called for greater diversification:
“We need to succeed in tapping new markets and further diversifying our sales channels. Otherwise, we will continue to lose ground in global competition.”
Moreover, the sentiment in the export industry is dampening. The Ifo Institute found “disillusionment” in its latest survey.
“A 15 percent tariff from the US is less than feared, but it will still dampen export dynamics,” explained Klaus Wohlrabe, head of Ifo surveys.
Export development in July 2025: EU internal market as a stabilising force
In July 2025, Germany exported 74.8 billion euros’ worth of goods to European Union member states, adjusting for calendar and seasonal effects. This was a 2.5 percent increase compared to June. Within the EU, 52.0 billion euros were attributed to the Eurozone (+2.5 percent) and 22.8 billion euros to non-Euro states (+2.6 percent).
The DIHK sees this as a positive signal. Head of foreign trade Volker Treier stated:
“The downward trend continues. The German export economy receives another setback this summer. The EU internal market is gaining importance.”
He urged:
“Strengthening the EU internal market and reducing domestic bureaucratic hurdles must now be top priority. Additionally, the EU needs further robust trade agreements.”
The trade with non-EU countries developed differently: here, exports fell by 4.5 percent to 55.3 billion euros.
The US remained the most significant buyer of German goods, albeit with notable losses. Exports fell to 11.1 billion euros – the lowest figure since December 2021. Exports to China also dropped significantly (−7.3 percent to 6.4 billion euros), as well as to the United Kingdom (−3.1 percent to 7.0 billion euros).
Particularly, foreign trade with Russia plummeted: Exports decreased by 12.4 percent on a monthly comparison to 0.5 billion euros. In an annual comparison, there is even a 19.8 percent decrease.
Mixed picture for industrial production
Despite weak foreign trade figures, there are slight glimmers of hope in industry. Output in manufacturing rose by 1.3 percent in July compared to June, the first increase since March.
Destatis also revised June’s data: Instead of a 1.9 percent decline, the drop was merely 0.1 percent. According to VP Bank Chief Economist Thomas Gitzel, “the increase in industrial production holds hope that industry will contribute positively to growth in the third quarter.”
However, long-term development remains weak: Production still lags around 10 percent behind 2019 levels.
BDI calls for “autumn of reforms”
The CEO of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), Tanja Gönner, stated in her quarterly report:
“The German industry remains under pressure. Production is significantly below last year’s level, and capacity utilisation remains weak. A genuine economic recovery is not on the horizon in 2025.”
She urged for comprehensive reforms:
“For long-term and sustainable growth, we now need a real ‘Autumn of Reforms’. The federal government must decisively push for deregulation and state modernisation, and make structural reforms in social systems.”
