Project44’s October Tariff Report shows that 67 blank sailings are planned for vessels travelling from China to the US in October and 71 in the opposite direction. The firm notes that this number of cancellations “exceeds Covid-19 levels,” signalling a sharp contraction in available trans-Pacific capacity.
Freight rates, meanwhile, have dropped to their lowest level since the pandemic, as carriers struggle to maintain profitability amid weakening trade flows between the two countries.
Both Handelsblatt and project44 link the cancellations to renewed trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. As the German business daily reports, US President Donald Trump’s decision to increase punitive tariffs on imports from China to 145%, followed by 125% retaliatory tariffs from Beijing, has depressed volumes on both sides.
Although both governments later agreed on a temporary tariff pause, imports from China “remained low due to weak demand in the US,” Handelsblatt writes.
Data from project44 shows that imports from China to the US have been declining for five consecutive months, while exports have fallen for nine. Over the past year, US imports from China dropped 27% year-on-year, and exports to China fell by 42%, according to the consultancy.
Blank sailings surge on all major US trade routes
Project44 recorded sharp increases in blank sailings not only between the US and China but also on other major trade lanes involving the United States:
- +75% on the US West Coast–Southeast Asia route,
- +46.5% on the China–US West Coast lane,
- +40.7% on Southeast Asia–US West Coast,
- +31.6% on US West Coast–Europe,
- +28.7% on Southeast Asia–US East Coast, and
- +26.5% on US West Coast–China.
Project44 adds that early indicators suggest some US import volumes are shifting from China to Indonesia and Thailand.
Freight rates collapse to lowest level since 2023
According to Handelsblatt, analysts believe carriers are cutting sailings in an attempt to stabilise freight rates. However, the strategy appears unsuccessful so far. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) currently shows an average spot rate of USD 1,114 per container, roughly half of the level seen in June.
Investment bank Jefferies estimates that spot freight rates have now fallen below break-even for the first time since late 2023, raising concerns about the upcoming contract season.
Hapag-Lloyd: ‘Only one blank sailing during Golden Week’
Germany’s largest container carrier, Hapag-Lloyd, told Handelsblatt it had implemented only one blank sailing between Asia and the US West Coast during China’s “Golden Week” holiday period to “accommodate the seasonal decline in demand.”
A company spokesperson said that although exports from China had eased, sailings were “fully booked this week and for the next two weeks.”
The carrier, which ranks fifth globally by capacity, saw its revenue decline 11% in the first half of 2025, with its operating profit margin falling from 9% to 6%, Handelsblatt reports.
Analysts doubt rate recovery after Golden Week
According to analysts at Better Supply Chains, “carriers are cancelling sailings at an intensity we haven’t seen since the early pandemic period.”
However, Bart De Muynck, Head Thinker at the consultancy, told project44 that “the strategy is less about crisis response this time and more about maintaining rate stability in a tariff-distorted market.”
Meanwhile, market intelligence firm Linerlytica told Handelsblatt earlier this week that it will be difficult for carriers to achieve any meaningful rate increases once China’s Golden Week ends on 15 October.
