UK road transport prices jumped sharply in November, rising at the fastest November rate since the TEG Road Transport Price Index began in 2019. The overall index climbed 1.73% to 129.4 at the same time as the market experienced a sudden and dramatic tightening in carrier supply.
After two consecutive months of strong availability, including a 21.7% rise in October alone, November brought a complete reversal. Carrier availability dropped by 22.4%, wiping out those recent gains and creating the tightest conditions seen for several months. The fall coincided with growing demand, adding pressure to an already stretched market.
According to the TEG data, overall carrier demand rose 4.79% in November. Demand for artic vehicles was even stronger at 8.32%, while haulage demand increased 2.62%. With fewer carriers available, rising demand translated directly into rising prices across both haulage and courier operations.
Haulage rates increased in line with the wider trend. The Haulage Index reached 128.1 in November, up 1.83% month-on-month, exactly the same increase seen over the past year. Artic vehicles moved almost identically, rising 1.9%. Courier prices also climbed, with the Courier Index reaching 130.6 after a 1.56% monthly rise and a 2.59% annual increase.
The timing of these shifts reflects a market preparing for a late Black Friday and the start of the Christmas build-up. Early TEG data suggests that companies were moving large goods into distribution centres throughout November, contributing to the rise in demand. External indicators point in the same direction: live data from Nationwide Building Society recorded 7.3 million customer transactions by 4pm on Black Friday, a 9.18% increase compared to 2024. Although the total value of those transactions is still unknown, the volume alone created additional movement for transport providers.
Labour trends added further tension. The RHA has reported that around 100,000 HGV drivers have allowed their Driver Qualification Card to lapse in the last year, while average HGV pay has risen 9.26%. Within that environment, the TEG Index notes that 3PLs appear to be leaning more heavily on third-party partnerships to manage fluctuating demand.
This all unfolded against a cautious economic backdrop. Inflation in November remained at 3.6%, and the Office for Budget Responsibility expects it to close the year at 3.5% before easing to 2.5% in 2026. The Bank of England held interest rates at 4%, while the GfK Consumer Confidence Index dipped by two points. At the same time, ONS survey data showed businesses divided on whether performance will improve or deteriorate over the next 12 months, illustrating an ongoing mismatch between sentiment and economic fundamentals.
Fuel prices also added mild upward pressure. Diesel averaged 143.82p per litre in November, up 0.83p in the month and 3.35p year-on-year. Petrol rose slightly to 135.04p per litre. The government’s decision to freeze fuel duty until September 2026 offers some short-term stability, though it will expire after its 15-year duration unless updated in the spring budget.
Commenting on the market conditions, senior logistics and supply chain consultant Kirsten Tisdale said the unusual alignment of a late Black Friday and the November budget had shaped behaviour this year. She added that any underlying driver shortage may be less visible due to wider economic conditions.
“When things do pick up, either for Xmas peak or beyond, make sure you’re ready. It’s an obvious thing to say, but the budget being so close to a late Black Friday has meant that this is yet another unusual year. The press hasn’t helped by being so down about everyone’s finances – the ghost of direct debits yet to come! There probably is a driver shortage, but it may not be overly apparent because of the state of the economy.”
With December now underway, the sector is entering its busiest period with rising prices, tightening supply and little margin for disruption, a combination that has defined this year’s unusually sharp November peak.
