As one sector executive remarked during a recent panel discussion, “when capacity is scarce, whoever holds the steering wheel also holds the power to set the price.” That dynamic will be especially visible this year, as Christmas logistics require more visibility and agility than ever.
Advanced demand and capacity under stress
According to Transport Intelligence, the European peak season has structurally shifted forward: it now begins in November rather than December, driven by e-commerce, promotional periods and the growth of B2C deliveries. This shift concentrates orders into fewer weeks and intensifies the strain on available capacity.
During this period, both spot rates and fixed-route rates tend to rise sharply, while load assignment times increase on critical corridors — such as DACH, Benelux and Italy — where fleet availability is particularly tight. For logistics operators, entering this period without a plan risks delays, contract breaches and the loss of strategic customers.
A fragmented and adjusting European market
Eurostat estimates that EU road transport reached approximately 1,869 billion tonne-kilometres in 2024, just 0.6% more than the previous year. Although overall growth remains limited, the picture varies widely between countries: Spain and several Central and Eastern European markets continue to show dynamism, while Germany lags behind.
This divergence has direct implications for operators. Relying solely on historical carriers or traditional networks increases exposure to bottlenecks and margin erosion. Access to alternative capacity — through digital platforms or broader supplier networks — is becoming essential to absorb demand peaks or sudden disruptions.
Driver shortage remains the major obstacle
The IRU estimates that Europe faced more than 426,000 unfilled driver positions in 2024. The situation is even more acute in countries like Germany, where the deficit is around 70,000 drivers, or the Czech Republic, where around 20,000 are missing.
With an ageing workforce — a third of drivers are now over 55 — the availability of structural capacity continues to decline, amplifying any seasonal pressure. During peak season, the combination of rising demand and driver scarcity leads to higher rates and unfulfilled loads, especially for operators without diversified carrier networks.
Warehouses with excess supply and more moderate e-commerce
While transport capacity remains tight, the warehousing market is experiencing the opposite trend. The slowdown in e-commerce has pushed vacancy rates upwards: in Poland, empty warehouse space has reached 7.6%, the highest level since 2020, with similar patterns observed in Germany and France.
For logistics operators, this decoupling means increased volatility in distribution flows and a greater need to coordinate storage and transport more precisely to avoid unnecessary operational costs.
What to expect from the 2025 peak season?
Projections point to a more moderate Christmas peak than in previous years. Inflation, slow economic growth and more cautious consumers are weighing on order volumes, while many companies have built inventories earlier to reduce risk.
Even so, the market could shift quickly in response to disruption. Regulatory changes, production stoppages or an unexpected surge in e-commerce could create short-lived “mini peaks” that are difficult to handle without digital tools enabling real-time reaction.
Keys to protecting margins in 2025
- Plan through data: anticipating volumes, rates and fleet availability enables action before capacity becomes expensive.
- Combine fixed routes with the spot market: a blended strategy stabilises margins while maintaining flexibility.
- Automate load assignment: integrating with transport platforms reduces delays and errors.
- Diversify carriers: access to multiple capacity sources is essential in a structurally tight market.
- Monitor profitability in real time: seasonal surcharges or rejecting unprofitable loads prevent hidden losses.
Looking to 2026: uneven rebound ahead
Forecasts point to a gradual recovery of European transport, potentially reaching 1,945 billion tonne-kilometres. Progress will likely remain slow in Western Europe and more robust in Eastern Europe, where capacity and demand tend to evolve with fewer frictions.
In such a volatile environment, the 2025 peak season will be less about moving the highest possible volume and more a test of operational discipline. Companies that combine planning, digitisation and diversified capacity networks will be best positioned to benefit from the expected recovery next year.
