Offer volumes peaked in December, pointing to a relatively strong year-end season in the temperature-controlled segment.
The analysis covers load volumes, available transport capacity and spot-market rates on the following routes, in both directions: Poland–Germany, Germany–Benelux, Germany–France, Germany–Italy, Poland–Italy, Poland–Czechia, Poland–Benelux, France–Benelux, France–Spain and Poland–Sweden. The data comes from the Trans.eu exchange.
Demand strengthened, but growth was uneven
In the second half of 2025, reefer freight offers increased year on year on most of the routes analysed, although the pace of growth was slightly weaker than in the full truckload segment.
August was the clear exception. It was the only month in which more routes recorded declines than increases, and together with September it marked the weakest period for load volumes. According to Ramón García, Vice President for Institutional Relations at the European Logistics Association (ELA) and Director General of the Spanish Logistics Centre (CEL), this does not necessarily signal a worsening market.
“The data points more to volatility than to structural deterioration. Year-on-year declines are concentrated in late summer and early autumn, when spot-market activity typically weakens after the summer peak,” he said.
Market conditions improved noticeably towards the end of the year. In December—the traditional peak month for transport—the number of offers rose year on year on 16 of the 20 routes analysed, often by more than 20% to 30%. That suggests a stronger festive-season peak than a year earlier, although García said this should still be seen mainly as a seasonal rebound.
“The December improvement reflects both holiday demand and the build-up of logistics decisions at year-end. It is more a seasonal rebound than a lasting change in trend,” he said.
The most consistent growth in demand was recorded on the Poland–Italy corridor in both directions, and from France to Spain, where offer volumes were higher than a year earlier in every month of the half-year.
“In the data analysed, these corridors stand out for their stability, which is typical of lanes with balanced flows and a strong agri-food production base,” García added.
Carriers stayed cautious
As in the wider FTL market, the second half of the year revealed a clear mismatch between shipper demand and carrier activity. Despite the increase in freight offers, transport companies searched for loads less often than a year earlier.
This was most visible in summer and early autumn. In August and September, search volumes fell on 18 of the 20 routes analysed. In October, only one lane recorded an increase: Spain to France.
Sebastian Dziwoń, Transport and Outsourcing Director at Lineage, said the autumn slowdown in carrier activity reflected a seasonal reshaping of the market.
“October is a month of negotiations and tenders following the Fruit Attraction trade fair in Madrid. During this period, the market briefly slows, as carriers wait for the southern European export season to begin. Vehicles return empty to Spain instead of taking lower-paid backloads,” he said.
According to Dziwoń, large operators are already positioning their fleets for the export season at that stage.
“The market is under pressure from large players preparing fleets for seasonal contracts and withdrawing from less profitable spot lanes,” he added.
The year-end peak brought only a partial recovery. Unlike in the FTL segment, where activity picked up more clearly, carrier interest in the reefer market remained relatively subdued. On at least half of the routes analysed, the number of searches in November and December was still lower than a year earlier.
García said the late-year rebound was driven mainly by operational fleet movements.
“The uptick in November and December is in line with typical year-end dynamics, when fleets are repositioned and short-term capacity adjustments are made,” he said.
The strongest carrier interest remained on routes from Benelux to Germany and from France to Benelux.
“This is one of Europe’s densest logistics corridors, with high goods turnover and strong operational integration. In mature markets such as these, spot activity tends to remain more dynamic even during adjustment periods,” García said.
Rates rose, but only moderately
Despite the increase in freight offers, reefer rates rose only moderately in the second half of 2025. In most cases, the increase was in the single digits, typically around 5% or less.
Rate declines appeared only occasionally. In September, lower prices were recorded on seven of the 20 routes analysed, while in July and December only one route posted a decline.
According to García, the market continues to be shaped by several opposing forces at once.
“Rates in the second half of 2025 remained above last year’s levels, although growth was moderate on some corridors. The most likely scenario for the first quarter of 2026 is stabilisation or moderate growth, rather than another wave of sharp increases,” he said.
Dziwoń noted that pricing in the reefer segment remains closely tied to the seasonality of exports from southern Europe.
“From October to April, southern Europe—especially Spain—enters its export peak. During this period, rates can be two to three times higher than in the off-season,” he said.
At the same time, southbound return legs often remain very weakly priced.
“It happens that return trips to Spain are carried out below operating cost, or that trucks return empty in order to pick up the next export load as quickly as possible,” Dziwoń said.
He added that some large operators are willing to accept very low rates on the return leg in order to reposition vehicles for more profitable export work from southern Europe.
The most stable rate growth in the second half of the year was recorded on seven lanes, where prices were higher year on year in every month of the half-year. These included Germany–Benelux in both directions, Poland–Italy, Poland–Czechia and Poland–Benelux.
Dziwoń also pointed to Poland’s growing role in the European reefer market.
“Poland is strengthening its position in European reefer transport. Its food products remain price-competitive, while carriers operate a very modern fleet, allowing them to take a growing share of Western European markets,” he said.
Stability is returning, but not evenly
According to Jacek Karcz, strategic adviser at the European Road Transport Institute (EITD), the coming months may bring a more stable, but still demanding, reefer market.
“Europe’s full truckload reefer market is entering 2026 in a phase of stability built on high costs. Base demand, mainly in food and pharmaceuticals, continues to support volumes, but seasonality and the quality of transport network organisation are playing an increasingly important role, rather than overall market growth alone,” he said.
He added that pricing pressure is now more likely to emerge on specific corridors and during particular weeks than in the form of a broad-based increase across Europe.
“As a result, the market is becoming more differentiated. Fixed-contract transport and services offering high predictability and quality retain their value, while the ad hoc segment is marked by greater volatility and more localised fluctuations,” Karcz said.
Edited by: Zsófia Pölös
