The analysis examines load supply, carrier activity and rate levels on the European spot market across selected transport corridors, including Poland-Germany, Germany-Benelux, Germany-Italy, Poland-Italy and France-Spain. The data comes from the Trans.eu freight exchange.
More loads, especially towards the end of the year
In the second half of 2025, the upward trend in the number of truckload freight offers continued compared with the same period a year earlier. In most months and across most of the corridors analysed, volumes were up year on year. Even in October, the weakest month in this respect, more than half of the routes still recorded higher offer numbers than a year earlier.
The biggest uplift came at the end of the year. In December, only four of the 20 corridors analysed recorded a decline in load offers, and the year-end period looked much more like a traditional peak season than it had in 2024.
The chart below shows the year-on-year change in truckload freight offers across the main European corridors covered by the analysis.
Year-on-year change in truckload freight offers on selected European corridors in the second half of 2025. Source: Trans.eu.
Poland was one of the stronger-performing markets in the analysis. In the second half of the year, load volumes on export routes from Poland increased clearly, reversing the pattern seen in the first half, when import flows had been growing faster.
Maciej Zwyrtek, general sales director at Kuźnia-Trans, argues that this reflected several overlapping developments.
“First, nearshoring: companies from Germany, France, Benelux and Scandinavia moved part of their production to Poland to shorten supply chains and reduce Asia-related risks. Second, the value-added content of exports increased, including household appliances, automotive components, clothing, food and premium goods. Third, imports weakened partly because the relatively weaker zloty made foreign goods less attractive in price terms,” says Zwyrtek.
A clear exception in the analysis was the Spain-France corridor, which was the only route to record a year-on-year decline in load offers in every month of the second half of the year.
“The reason lies in the condition of the French economy. Spanish fruit, vegetables and automotive components simply had fewer destinations,” says Tomasz Macherowski.
Carrier activity returned only at the end of the year
Although the number of offers was rising, carrier activity, measured by freight searches, remained limited for most of the second half of the year.
Dawid Wardin, Business Development Director at Interlogis, says this was partly linked to the growing role of contract business.
“The decline in spot freight searches was partly due to part of the market shifting to contract agreements amid shrinking capacity. The market is currently in a transition phase,” says Wardin.
The weakness seen in July can be partly explained by the holiday period, but September and October were particularly poor. In those two months, not a single corridor recorded a year-on-year increase in carrier activity.
“September and October were the bleakest period of 2025. The market practically froze. Part of the fleet was parked due to Smart V2 tachograph replacements, while eurozone industry also slowed clearly,” says Zwyrtek.
Macherowski offers a similar assessment.
“On top of the typical post-holiday slowdown came inventory reduction, a low PMI and consumer uncertainty. Many companies simply paused activity and waited for the November peak,” he says.
A clearer improvement appeared only towards the end of the year. November was the strongest month of the half-year, with freight searches rising on more than half of the corridors analysed. Even so, the recovery in carrier activity remained limited, with no lane posting growth in searches in more than three months of the period analysed.
The chart below shows the year-on-year change in truckload freight searches across the main European corridors covered by the analysis.
Supply-side pressure may define the market in 2026
The second half of 2025 brought a clear improvement on the demand side of the transport market. At the same time, carrier activity remained subdued for an extended period, pointing to a cautious approach to rebuilding capacity.
Maciej Zwyrtek believes 2026 will remain a difficult year, particularly for carriers.
“New challenges are already at the door: ETS2 and higher CO2 emission costs, further toll increases in Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic, and on top of that a structural driver shortage. Those with long-term contracts, a modern fleet with Smart V2 tachographs, sensible green investments and access to high-margin loads should get through it relatively unscathed. The rest, which is almost everyone, will be fighting for every haulage run,” he says.
The chart below shows the year-on-year change in truckload freight rates across the main European corridors covered by the analysis.
Angel Kalinov, director of brokerage at „Girteka“, expects an uncertain and volatile market in 2026, mainly due to supply-side issues.
– Transport supply is falling significantly and, in my opinion, this will make the market very volatile and uncertain in 2026. Locking in low rates by manufacturers may prove a risky move in a long-term strategy – says Kalinov. – I believe there are strong signals indicating that 2026 will be the year in which the spot market regains dominance.
Edited by: Artur Lysionok and Zsófia Pölös
