A clear divergence is emerging between Asia-Europe and Asia–US trades, with Europe-bound spot rates rising despite higher capacity while US routes continue to weaken, according to Xeneta’s latest weekly market update from 20 November. The development builds on similar movements seen earlier in November and now points to a more persistent shift rather than week-to-week volatility.
Average spot rates into North Europe climbed 5.6% week-on-week, while rates into the Mediterranean rose 4.1%. This marks the second consecutive week of upward movement on the European fronthauls. Carriers also expanded offered capacity, up 4.8% into North Europe and 8.7% into the Mediterranean compared to the previous week. Xeneta says this combination of rising rates and increasing capacity indicates healthy underlying demand into Europe as the market approaches the end of Q4 2025.
For European importers and forwarders, the firming of spot rates alongside additional vessel capacity may ease pressure on equipment availability while signalling that demand for goods sourced from the Far East remains steady. However, rate volatility could continue into early 2026 as carriers position vessels ahead of Chinese New Year and adjust networks in response to shifting global demand patterns.
The stronger European performance contrasts with developments on the transpacific trades, where spot rates continued to decline. Rates from the Far East to the US East Coast fell 2.8% week-on-week and are now down 23% from their 1 November peak. The US West Coast saw a further 3.2% decrease after a significant drop the previous week. Capacity on these routes grew sharply, with the Far East–US East Coast up 11.4% as carriers added sailings that appear to exceed current demand.
Capacity growth was also visible on the North Europe–US East Coast trade, which reached a 28-month high of nearly 60,000 TEU (four-week rolling average). Compared with the 10-month low recorded a month earlier, offered capacity has risen 55.5%, driven mainly by non-alliance services. Such capacity swings often accompany seasonal repositioning and early-year schedule planning but also reflect carriers’ attempts to secure market share in a weakening demand environment.
Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, said the latest figures highlight a widening split between the two major fronthaul markets.
“Average spot rates from Far East to North Europe and Mediterranean are up compared to a week ago while offered capacity is also increasing – suggesting healthy demand on these trades,” he said.
Sand added that Chinese exporters are increasingly redirecting goods into European markets, helping to support Asia–Europe volumes. By contrast, rising capacity on US routes appears to be outpacing demand, placing downward pressure on spot rates.
According to Sand, these trends are expected to continue into 2026, with Europe likely to remain a comparatively stronger destination for Far East exports as US trade policy weighs on consumer demand and ocean container volumes.
