That is the picture drawn by Transport Intelligence’s latest Ocean Freight Rate Tracker (Q4 2025), which reports a steep slide across major east–west trades and a market struggling to find a new equilibrium.
Ti’s Global Ocean Freight Rate Index shows that by October 2025, headhaul rates had fallen to 106.1, while backhaul rates reached 82; both at their weakest level since 2023. According to the report, headhaul rates dropped 13.9% month-on-month and over 51% year-on-year.
These declines are not merely gradual but characterised by sudden swings. The report points out that rates on some lanes fell by nearly a quarter within a single month earlier in the period, underscoring how unstable the market has become.
The steepest correction is visible on the Asia–Europe routes:
- 53.4% quarter-on-quarter drop,
- 4.3% year-on-year decline.
Meanwhile, the Transpacific headhaul trade saw the largest overall fall, with October headhaul spot rates down 65.5% year-on-year after earlier front-loading pushed a temporary spike in May and June. Even the Transatlantic, typically steadier, has not escaped pressure: exports from Europe to the US East Coast were down 8.6% year-on-year in August.
Europe stagnates while U.S. demand props up global volumes
Despite geopolitical tension and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, global container volumes grew 4.8% quarter-on-quarter. But the year-on-year comparison tells a different story: global throughput is still 4.1% lower than in Q3 2024.
The regional picture explains why:
- North America: Volumes surged 12.3% quarter-on-quarter, helped by resilient U.S. consumer spending, a key driver of its economy.
- Europe: No quarter-on-quarter growth at all. Volumes remain 4% lower than a year ago, reflecting weak retail sales, cautious consumers and a manufacturing sector that only shifted from contraction to stagnation.
- Asia: Volumes grew 2.9% quarter-on-quarter, but remain 6% down year-on-year, mirroring China’s cooling domestic economy and slowing retail sales.
This imbalance means that demand is simply not strong enough in Europe and parts of Asia to absorb the amount of capacity carriers have brought into the market.
More ships than cargo: capacity keeps climbing
According to the report, the global container fleet continues to expand at speed. By October 2025, weekly global capacity approached 5 million TEU, up 2.7% year-on-year, with Q3 alone up 3.4% versus Q2.
Behind this growth is a wave of newly delivered megaships and a large orderbook:
- Nearly 10 million TEU of new capacity is on order, about 30% of the current global fleet.
- MSC’s fleet has surpassed 7 million TEU, a new industry record.
- Other carriers, such as Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk and ONE, continue to receive big new vessels.
With demolition virtually absent and inactive fleet levels low, carriers have had no option but to deploy these ships, strengthening the oversupply that continues to push rates down across all major east–west lanes.
The situation may be further amplified by the resumption of Suez Canal routings, which increase effective capacity even more.
Fuel becomes cheaper but doesn’t change the overall picture
Bunker prices fell sharply across all regions in Q3 and October, global average prices down 15.9% year-on-year, with the Americas seeing the steepest drop at 20.8%.
This decline is driven by:
- Weaker demand for marine fuel
- Higher refinery output
- Softer crude oil benchmarks
Yet, cheaper fuel alone cannot counteract the much bigger downward force of excess capacity.
Market sentiment: split views on where rates go next
Ti’s sentiment index paints a market that is uncertain, fragmented, and sensitive to regional dynamics.
Respondents expect:
- Asia–Europe: Mostly slight or moderate increases over the next three months (56.8%).
- Asia–North America West Coast: A near-even split between those expecting increases (45.5%) and decreases (43.2%).
- Europe–US East Coast: The largest share (46.3%) expects rates to fall moderately.
While 53.1% of respondents globally expect some form of increase, the expectations are modest and highly dependent on lane-specific conditions.
Outlook: soft rates ahead, but carriers likely to intervene
The report concludes that capacity growth remains the dominant force shaping Q4 2025. Fleet growth of around 9% per year continues to outpace demand growth of 2–3%. With the peak season largely behind the industry, carriers face a soft market heading into the end of the year.
Ti expects:
- Flat or falling rates in Q4 2025
- Aggressive blank sailings as carriers try to manage supply
- New GRIs as they attempt to halt the slide in spot markets
- Continued volatility, as the recent US–China trade truce offers only temporary relief
Whether these carrier-led measures will actually succeed remains unclear. As Ti notes, the sheer scale of new capacity entering the market may simply be too large for operational adjustments to counterbalance.
