Photo credits @ Bartosz Wawryszuk (illustrative purposes only)

European road freight market to accelerate with 2.0% growth in 2025, new study predicts

Transport Intelligence's latest whitepaper forecasts cautious optimism for the European road freight sector, projecting growth of 0.9% to €428.2bn in 2024, with a stronger uptick of 2% expected in 2025.

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The sector has shown resilience despite significant challenges, with major players reporting robust performance. DSV led the pack with a 7.5% revenue increase in the first nine months of 2024, whilst Nordic Transport Group and Kuehne + Nagel posted gains of 6.8% and 3% respectively.

However, the industry faces mounting pressures. Driver shortages, already a critical issue, are predicted to worsen dramatically, with unfilled positions potentially exceeding 60% by 2026. This comes as operators grapple with rising toll rates across Europe and ongoing geopolitical tensions, Ti explains.

The domestic market has proved particularly resilient and is forecast to grow by 1.3% to €297.9bn in 2024, outperforming the broader market. The study adds that this growth will be underpinned by cooling inflation, which will fall to 2% in the Eurozone by October 2024, and improved consumer spending power.

Looking ahead to 2025, the sector faces several challenges. The manufacturing sector’s contraction, evidenced by a PMI of 45.2 in November 2024, could dampen growth prospects. Additionally, potential new US trade tariffs under President-elect Trump could particularly impact major economies like Germany and the Netherlands.

The report emphasises that while the sector shows resilience, the combination of driver shortages, increasing operational costs, and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to challenge operators in the coming years.

Ti highlights that while the market is growing, operators must navigate a complex landscape of environmental regulations, rising costs, and labour challenges. The European Commission’s €199.7bn EU budget proposal for 2025 may provide some support, but structural challenges remain.

Despite these challenges, the international freight market is expected to show stronger growth in 2025, with a projected increase of 2.4% to €133.4bn, suggesting growing confidence in cross-border trade recovery.

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