Truck transport in Germany: no relief for the transport industry

The hoped-for economic recovery has not materialized. Although the downturn in the economy has slowed, the German transport sector remains under significant pressure. This is according to the latest market report by the European Load Network of International Freight Forwarders (ELVIS) AG, which paints a critical picture for the second quarter of 2025. Particularly worrying: the transport industry is struggling with rising personnel costs, capacity constraints, and an increasing number of insolvencies – a scenario that ELVIS CEO Nikolja Grabowski describes as a ‘serious alarm signal.’

The current market report shows that the overall economic situation remains tense.

‘There is currently no talk of a trend reversal: the German economy is stagnating, the hoped-for recovery is not happening. Particularly the weak production in the manufacturing sector is alarming and has serious consequences for the economy,’ says Nikolja Grabowski, CEO of ELVIS AG.

Although GDP is largely stagnant (Q2/2025: -0.1% compared to the previous quarter; +0.4% compared to the same quarter last year), industrial production in particular shows dramatic declines. This is particularly evident when compared year-on-year: While the production of motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts in June 2025 recorded a decline of 4.8 percent compared to the same month last year, the decline in chemical production was 7.6 percent, and in mechanical engineering 8.7 percent. Overall, industrial production is 6.9% below the same month of the previous year.

This development has a direct impact on truck traffic, which is also reflected in the industry-specific expectations of ELVIS partners. In an internal survey, around 49% of forwarding agents in the construction sector and just under 53% in trade stated that they expect a stable transport volume in the next four weeks. In the automotive segment, however, the majority – specifically 38.78% – expect a decline in shipment volumes, indicating industry-specific weakness.

Limited loading space, expensive personnel – structural problems intensify

In addition, available loading space remains scarce due to the ongoing reduction in capacity. This development is also reflected in the transport barometer: In July 2025, the ratio of freight to loading space in the domestic spot market was 12.2 percent higher than in the same month last year.

‘Recently, however, the market has slightly relaxed – probably due to the start of the holiday season, which temporarily eases the pressure,’ explains Grabowski. Thus, the value decreased by 5.7 percent compared to the previous month. ‘However, this relief will not be permanent,’ adds the ELVIS CEO.

Another burden is the sharply increased personnel costs: The average gross monthly earnings in the transport and logistics sector increased by 3.9% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year. This has a direct impact on the profitability of companies in an already personnel-intensive service.

Change in fuel costs

While wholesale selling prices have hardly changed compared to the same month last year (+0.5 percent; July 2024), fuel costs remain moderately low.

Regulations and uncertainty hamper investment – ELVIS recommends technology offensive

Despite announced investment packages by the new federal government, there are still no noticeable impulses for the industry. On the contrary, bureaucratic hurdles and high charges further burden economic planning certainty.

‘The current geopolitical situation creates additional uncertainty and prevents any sense of optimism,’ warns Grabowski.

‘Rising insolvency numbers show only the tip of the iceberg’

As reported by the freight association, insolvency numbers have recently risen significantly – a trend that CEO Grabowski claims represents only the tip of the iceberg – however, the association does not provide figures.

‘The recently noticeably increased insolvency numbers highlight how much the transport industry is suffering from cost pressure, skill shortages, and regulatory burdens – a serious alarm signal and likely only the tip of the iceberg,’ warns the ELVIS CEO.

In light of this, the freight association calls for a strategic realignment. Companies need to continuously evaluate their cost and price structures. The most important lever according to Grabowski:

‘Even in economically challenging times, strategically invest in modern technologies to digitize and optimize processes efficiently.’