Transport industry under pressure: skilled labour shortage, rising personnel costs and weak economy strain the market

The German economy continues to stagnate. As highlighted in the new ELVIS market report, global crises and unclear economic policy direction are currently preventing any meaningful recovery.

“The German economy continues to stagnate: Global crises and unclear economic policy decisions currently prevent any recovery,” summarises Nikolja Grabowski, CEO of ELVIS AG.

The data confirm this assessment: gross domestic product remained flat in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter and increased by only 0.3 percent year-on-year. Other indicators show little improvement. Although business expectations rose slightly by 2.0 percent, the business climate and current situation remained largely unchanged.

Transport market remains tense despite seasonal revival

Uncertainty is also evident in the truck transport market. Despite a 2.6 percent month-on-month increase in truck toll mileage in October 2025, the figure was still 1.1 percent below the previous year’s level. The transport barometer—the ratio of freight to available load space—fell by 5.8 percent compared with September and by 1.2 percent year-on-year.

“Even in the truck transport market, the prospects for the coming weeks remain weak,” says Grabowski.

Many customers have already announced early business closures, and December’s transport volume is expected to be correspondingly low.

Cost development: stable material costs, rising personnel pressure

One bright spot is that general costs in road freight transport remain relatively stable. Producer prices for transport rose by only 0.6 percent in Q2 2025 compared with the previous quarter; warehousing prices increased by 0.3 percent. Vehicle costs also remained largely steady:

• Trucks: +0.2% (Q3 2025 vs. previous quarter), +1.1% year-on-year
  
• Tractor units: 0.0% (vs. previous quarter), +2.1% year-on-year
  
• Trailers: -0.1% (no year-on-year change)
  

Fuel price developments were mixed:

• Diesel: -1.4% (October 2025 vs. previous month), +0.4% year-on-year
  
• LNG: -5.7% (November 2025 vs. previous month), -38.0% year-on-year
  
• AdBlue: -2.9% (October 2025 vs. previous month), +8.6% year-on-year
  

The sharp annual decrease in LNG, down by a full 38 percent year-on-year, is particularly notable. AdBlue, by contrast, has risen by almost 9 percent since October 2024, creating an additional cost burden for operators of modern diesel fleets.

Personnel costs continue to rise as skills shortage persists

The greatest challenge remains personnel. Average gross monthly earnings increased by 2.1 percent in Q2 compared with the previous quarter and by 3.7 percent year-on-year—significantly above the general inflation rate.

The average gross monthly salary of a professional driver in 2024 without special payments was €3,266 (€39,192 annually). Including special payments, the figure was €3,430 (€41,161 annually). Regional differences remain clear: drivers in eastern Germany earned €3,118 per month with special payments, compared with €3,503 in western Germany.

“The lack of personnel and the simultaneously rising costs in this area are currently among the greatest challenges in the truck transport market,” adds Grabowski.

Outlook: data-driven flexibility becomes a competitive factor

Given current market conditions, digital and transparent key figures are becoming increasingly important.

“For transport companies, the timeliness and transparency of their operational and financial key figures are becoming increasingly important,” emphasises Grabowski.

Structured data is fundamental for automation and the targeted use of artificial intelligence—potential competitive advantages in an increasingly precarious market environment.

Weak final quarter expected

The ELVIS market report reaches a sobering conclusion: although forecasts for the coming months point to minimal growth, the reality in the truck transport market remains challenging. Reduced capacities, weakening demand and rising personnel costs are shaping autumn 2025, and December is likely to be another below-average month.