UK considers cutting 2030 electric van target as sales fall behind 

The government has launched a ten-week review of the UK’s Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate, acknowledging that the path originally set for electric vans may no longer be realistic.

Under the current rules, manufacturers’ headline zero-emission van target rises from 16% in 2025 to 24% in 2026, before increasing to 34% in 2027, 46% in 2028, 58% in 2029 and 70% in 2030.

However, battery-electric vans represented only 10.1% of new light goods vehicle registrations between January and June 2026, up from 8.3% during the equivalent period of 2025. Their share reached 11% in June.

Nearly 30,000 zero-emission light goods vehicles were registered in 2025, an increase of 32.9%, but the Department for Transport’s consultation document says considerably faster growth would be needed to follow the existing trajectory.

It estimates that electric-van sales would have to rise by an average of 52% annually between 2025 and 2030 if manufacturers were to meet the headline target through vehicle sales alone. That compares with average annual growth of 18% between 2022 and 2025.

The government says the gap between sales and the mandate’s headline targets is becoming increasingly difficult to close, “especially” in the van market.

Three lower targets under consideration

Alongside retaining the present trajectory, the consultation presents three options for reducing the headline 2030 van target:

• 60% by 2030: annual targets would reach 33% in 2027, 42% in 2028 and 51% in 2029.
• 50% by 2030: the trajectory would move through 31% in 2027, 37% in 2028 and 44% in 2029.
• 40% by 2030: targets would be set at 28% in 2027, 32% in 2028 and 36% in 2029.

All three pathways would retain the goal of reaching 100% zero-emission new van sales in 2035. The lower the 2030 target, however, the more rapidly the required share would have to rise during the following five years.

Under the least demanding option, the target would jump from 40% in 2030 to 52% in 2031, 64% in 2032, 76% in 2033, 88% in 2034 and 100% in 2035.

A fourth alternative would preserve the existing 70% target while extending regulatory flexibilities, including the ability to bank, borrow and transfer compliance credits, until 2034. This could allow manufacturers to meet their formal obligations even if their actual electric-van sales remained below the headline percentages.

Targets do not equal actual sales

The mandate applies to manufacturers rather than individual van buyers or fleet operators. Manufacturers can comply through zero-emission vehicle sales, but also by trading credits or using several regulatory flexibilities.

These arrangements already help explain the difference between headline targets and the share of electric vans actually registered.

In 2024, manufacturers used reductions in the emissions of their non-zero-emission vans to generate credits equivalent to an additional 5.3% of zero-emission van registrations. The government says these mechanisms allowed the market to comply with the regulation despite delivering fewer electric vehicles than implied by the headline target.

Not all manufacturers are equally positioned to make use of them, however. The consultation explicitly recognises that not every UK-based manufacturer can meet the existing van trajectory.

Cost, charging and operational barriers remain

The electric-van market has expanded, with more than 40 zero-emission models now available and almost two-thirds of van models offering an electric version. Nevertheless, commercial buyers continue to face obstacles that are less significant in the passenger-car market.

These can include higher purchase prices, charging infrastructure costs, payload reductions caused by battery weight and difficulties matching electric vehicles to longer or less predictable duty cycles.

The review follows earlier changes intended to reduce regulatory disadvantages for electric vans weighing up to 4.25 tonnes. These vehicles may be heavier than diesel equivalents because of their batteries, even where their practical carrying function is similar.

The government argues that the review is therefore necessary to keep the transition achievable and compliance costs affordable. It also warns that relaxing the targets would reduce expected carbon savings. Its modelling indicates that the option cutting the van target to 40% would reduce annual emissions savings from vans by an average of approximately 2 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent during the 2033–2037 carbon-budget period.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said the government’s final objective had not changed but that the targets needed to remain practical and retain the support of businesses.

The consultation closes at 11.59 pm on 23 October 2026. Its findings may lead to amendments to the Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes Order, although no target reduction has yet been decided.