The analysis covers load supply, available transport capacity and spot market rates on the following routes: Poland–Germany, Germany–Benelux, Germany–France, Germany–Italy, Poland–Italy, Poland–Czechia, Poland–Benelux, France–Benelux, France–Spain and Poland–Sweden. The data comes from the Trans.eu exchange.
In H2 2025, the light commercial vehicle market was characterized by a widespread increase in the number of offers. August turned out to be the weakest month—growth was recorded on 12 routes, declines on 7, and one lane remained unchanged. In July and December, the number of offers was already rising on all analysed directions, and in September—on 17 out of 20 routes. What’s more, as many as six lanes posted growth in every month of the second half of the year.
Compared with the recently discussed heavy truck transport, the direction of change was similar, but the scale of growth was clearly smaller. While in the FTL segment offer growth often exceeded 30–40% year on year, for vans it most often fell within the 10–20% range. Declines were less frequent and usually single-digit. As a result, fluctuations in load supply were much milder in this segment.
Compared with the recently discussed heavy truck transport, the direction of change was similar, but the scale of growth was clearly smaller. While in the truckload segment offer growth often exceeded 30–40% year on year, for vans it most often fell within the 10–20% range. Declines were less frequent and usually single-digit. As a result, fluctuations in load supply were much milder in this segment.
As Teodor Kula, General Manager at SIS Trans and a board member of PSML (Polish Association of Logistics and Procurement Managers), points out, this stems from the specifics of the segment itself.
– The light commercial vehicle market has long operated somewhat alongside classic FTL or refrigerated transport. Spot and express transport dominates here, and it follows a completely different logic than long-term contracts. The van market’s reaction to global demand shifts is often faster and more nervous, sometimes even moving in the opposite direction than in the heavy truck segment – he explains.
An important role in the surge of load offers for vans is also played by the growth of e-commerce.
– One of the key factors is the continued growth of e-commerce in Europe. This directly drives demand for express and ad-hoc deliveries, and vans are the simplest and fastest tool to fulfil such orders – adds Kula.
Dawid Wardin, Business Development Director – International Transport and Logistics at Interlogis, interprets it similarly.
– The widespread increase in load offers for the light commercial vehicle sector in the second half of 2025 resulted from the nature of this segment. It responds to the real needs of the e-commerce market—short lead times, small batches and fast capacity matching. Today, a van primarily buys time and flexibility – he stresses.
As in other parts of the market, December brought a clear rebound. All routes recorded an increase in the number of offers, although often even half as high as in heavy truck transport.
An autumn dip in carrier activity
Carrier activity measured by the number of searches was lower than a year earlier, despite the growing number of offers. A decline in searches could be seen from July to October, followed by a clear pickup towards the end of the year. The October drop in activity in the light commercial vehicle segment was just as strong as in heavy transport.
– Such deep year-on-year declines in search activity may reflect a shift in user behaviour—for example, moving to fixed contracts or changing the way orders are sourced. That’s why October should be interpreted with some caution – notes Jacek Karcz, strategic advisor at the European Road Transport Institute (EITD).
In Dawid Wardin’s view, the autumn drop in activity does not necessarily indicate a structural supply problem.
– Lower activity among van carriers in September and October was not a systemic collapse in supply. It is rather the effect of postponing decisions after the holiday period and ahead of Q4. September–October is often a desert before the peak season – Wardin explains.
Towards the end of the year, activity increased markedly. In November, search growth appeared on all routes except one, and in December—on all but two.
Over the longer term, the light commercial vehicle segment remains more flexible than heavy transport.
– Overall, the capacity shortage in the light commercial vehicle segment is smaller than in heavy truck transport. Entering the market is easier, so supply responds faster to changes in demand – adds Wardin.
Rates up, but the pace of growth is clearly slowing
In the second half of 2025, freight rates rose across all segments of the transport market, but most evenly in transport carried out with light commercial vehicles. Across the 20 analysed routes, declines occurred only four times: in August on the Sweden–Poland lane, in November and December in the opposite direction, and in December on the Poland–Italy route. On three directions, prices remained at the same level as a year earlier.
Although increases were widespread, their scale remained moderate. After July—when most rates rose by more than 10%—the following months brought mainly increases of around 5%.
One factor limiting van availability is regulatory change.
– The upcoming changes related to eFTI are very important. They are already influencing carriers’ decisions. More and more often you hear that part of international van transport is starting to lose its economic sense – says Teodor Kula.
According to the SIS Trans representative, this leads to a gradual reduction in supply.
– The result is a real drop in van availability. Some companies are withdrawing from such routes, and some from the entire segment. In addition, the market has been hit hard by a wave of financial problems and bankruptcies among small carriers, who dominate the van segment – he emphasises.
A smaller number of available vehicles quickly feeds through into prices. In Teodor Kula’s view, with fewer vehicles available—especially at times of peak demand—the market reacts very quickly through rates.
– That is why, despite a difficult environment in the second half of 2025, prices on many lanes maintained an upward trend – says Kula.
Over the longer term, this trend may even lead to changes in fleet structure.
– Increasingly, when making new fleet purchases, a heavier, more universal vehicle wins out—the so-called rigid truck. This is not yet a mass movement, but the trend is visible and may deepen if regulatory pressure increases – he assesses.
Edited by: Artur Lysionok
