CLEAR expects trailer demand in Western Europe to rise by 6% in 2026, with stronger growth “likely” in 2027 and 2028. The forecast follows three years of weak demand, which CLEAR says has created pent-up replacement needs that could now translate into higher registrations.
The report describes 2025 as a year of two halves. CLEAR says the imposition of tariffs on imports to the USA increased uncertainty and weakened business confidence, which in turn reduced hauliers’ willingness to invest in new trailers.
Even so, demand improved later in the year. CLEAR reports 8.6% growth in the second half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. That rebound, however, did not offset the earlier weakness, leaving full-year trailer demand down 0.5% in 2025.
For CLEAR, that pattern matters: it suggests the market may already have passed its low point, with the trend established in H2 2025 expected to carry into 2026.
Financing and confidence are central to the 2026 outlook
Beyond replacement demand, the report places heavy emphasis on the macro backdrop. CLEAR argues that further reductions in inflation should lead to lower interest rates, improving the affordability of financing for commercial vehicle purchases.
The forecast also indicates that leading indicators are supportive. CLEAR notes that the OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) for January 2026 were above the trend level of 100 for Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Spain, with each country between 101 and 102 on the index. The report suggests improving growth momentum over the next six months.
In other words, the recovery is framed less as a sudden structural shift and more as a combination of easing financial pressure, improving investment conditions, and deferred purchasing beginning to unwind.
Most markets up in 2026 with Spain the exception
CLEAR expects trailer registrations to rise in all but one country across the region in 2026. The outlier is Spain, where the report says strong growth in 2025 could lead to a “pause” this year.
For operators and suppliers, that divergence is a reminder that the recovery may not be perfectly synchronised across Western Europe — and that comparisons will be influenced by how sharply individual markets rose or fell in the previous year.
The report also links trailer demand to the wider trajectory of road transport activity. CLEAR says tonne-kilometres in Western Europe fell by 4.0% in 2023, then grew by 0.6% in both 2024 and 2025. It expects “further and more vigorous growth” in the years that follow.
Taken together, the figures imply a gradual improvement rather than a dramatic acceleration: freight demand is presented as moving from contraction to modest growth, while trailer demand is forecast to rise more sharply — consistent with CLEAR’s view that replacement cycles and pent-up demand will provide an additional boost.
A recovery window and a downturn already pencilled in
While CLEAR’s near-term outlook is positive, the report also underlines the cyclical nature of the market. Further ahead, it says the market can “almost” be certain to experience a cyclical downturn by the end of the decade, currently projected for 2030.
That framing effectively positions 2026–2029 as a recovery and expansion phase — but not an indefinitely rising market.
CLEAR is explicit about the main threats: “more war and/or more tariffs.” Given the report’s emphasis on confidence and financing, the implication is that renewed geopolitical shocks could quickly feed back into investment decisions, even if underlying replacement needs remain.
CLEAR: “Pent-up demand will boost the recovery”
Commenting on the forecast, CLEAR International director Gary Beecroft said pent-up demand caused by three years of weak trailer sales should support the recovery, alongside falling interest rates and inflation. He also argued that some published economic forecasts for Western Europe may be “too pessimistic,” although the report still characterises growth in the region as moderate rather than rapid.
CLEAR says its report outlines “when, where and how quickly” the trailer market is expected to recover and develop through to 2030.
