The findings come from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) latest study; Within reach – The 2025 CO2 targets for new heavy-duty vehicles in Europe, which analysed official emissions data and zero-emission truck sales across the bloc.
Under the rules, manufacturers must reduce the average emissions of new trucks by 15% compared with 2019 levels. The compliance period runs from July 2025 to June 2026, marking the first stage in a series of increasingly strict climate targets for the sector. Heavy-duty vehicles currently account for more than a quarter of EU road transport CO₂ emissions.
Scania and Volvo set the pace
The ICCT analysis shows that Scania and Volvo Trucks are well ahead, having already met the 2025 benchmark in 2023. Both have recorded more than 15% fleet-average reductions and are set to remain compliant even without further improvements. Volvo has also taken a lead in zero-emission truck sales, registering over 1,350 electric trucks in 2023, equal to 3.2% of its sales in regulated categories.
Fleet-average specific CO2 emissions for HDV manufacturers, 2019–2023 – source: ICCT
Renault Trucksand DAF are also expected to reach the target, helped by credits accumulated between 2019 and 2023. These credits, awarded for outperforming reduction trajectories in earlier years, can be used only once in 2025 to offset any shortfall.
MAN is likely to meet its obligations by pooling emissions with Scania under a mechanism that allows unlimited transfers within manufacturers that share a parent company. Both belong to the TRATON Group.
Daimler and Iveco face tougher compliance paths
The two laggards, Daimler Truck and Iveco, face steeper challenges. Daimler, which accounts for nearly one-fifth of the EU truck market, remains about five percentage points above its reduction target. To bridge the gap, it must either increase zero-emission truck sales from 2% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025, or ensure that its diesel trucks match the performance of the best half of its 2023 fleet. A combination of both measures is considered likely.
Iveco, with a 12% market share, is furthest from compliance. The company sold only 16 zero-emission trucks in regulated categories in 2024, leaving it more than 12 percentage points above its target. The study estimates that Iveco would need to sell around 450 electric long-haul trucks in 2025—equivalent to 3.3% of its sales—to fully meet the requirement. Alternatively, a combination of efficiency improvements and limited transfers of zero-emission trucks from other manufacturers could allow it to avoid penalties.
Eamonn Mulholland, Senior Researcher at the ICCT and lead author of the study, said:
“Most manufacturers are already well on track to meet their 2025 CO₂ targets. For those still catching up, there are clear and realistic pathways to close the gap, such as technology improvements or compliance flexibilities. With zero-emission sales picking up and conventional vehicles becoming more efficient, Europe’s heavy-duty industry is well positioned to hit its first CO₂ milestone.”
First milestone met, tougher goals ahead
Sales of zero-emission trucks across the EU reached 8,200 in 2024, representing 2.5% of the market, up from just 0.7% in 2022. Volvo and Renault accounted for the majority of these, while other manufacturers made slower progress.
Looking ahead, the 2025 target is only the first in a series of progressively tougher standards. The EU aims for a 45% reduction in average truck emissions by 2030, 65% by 2035, and 90% by 2040. While the ICCT concludes that the initial goal is within reach, it warns that the pace of zero-emission truck adoption will need to accelerate significantly to meet the longer-term targets.
