Logisticians expect a global recession in 2020
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Supply chain industry executives anticipate a recession in 2020 amid concerns about downward pressure on global trade volumes, uncertain growth prospects, and ongoing friction between the U.S. and China, warns Agility, a global logistics company with $5.1 billion in annual revenue and 26,000+ employees in more than 100 countries.
Agility has been publishing its Emerging Markets Logistics Index annually since 2008 in which countries are ranked by factors that make them attractive to logistics providers, freight forwarders, shipping lines, air cargo carriers and distributors.
The study shows that 64 percent of those surveyed believe a recession is likely in the next 12 months, and only 12% are optimistic about the future. At the same time, 70 percent of those surveyed said that despite the ongoing trade struggle between China and the USA, they want to continue doing business in China.
The fears of a recession are not to be taken lightly, especially because of uncertainty about the impact of the coronavirus outbreak,” says Essa Al-Saleh, CEO of Agility Global Logistics. “A positive sign, however, is that a large number of emerging markets economies were able to weather an array of issues — political and social unrest, structural problems, even international sanctions for some — without losing much ground in the past year.”
For the eleventh time, the Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index also ranked the world’s 50 leading emerging markets. The top ten in 2020 are the following: China, India, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Mexico, Thailand and Turkey.
China, India and Indonesia rank highest for domestic logistics; China, India and Mexico are top for international logistics; and UAE, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia have the best business fundamentals. China ranks 8th in business fundamentals, down one spot from 2019.