Q3 confirmed a slow revival in the European road transport market. Contract and spot rates converged, both reaching an index level of 134 points, which means an increase of 1.7 points quarter-on-quarter for both markets. Year-on-year, spot rates rose by 1.9 points and contract rates by 3.1 points.
Several factors are behind this rise – stabilising costs (especially fuel), persistently high inflation in some countries, a slight rebound in industrial production, and increasing FMCG volumes ahead of the holiday period. At the same time, manufacturers in Europe are acting more cautiously, reducing some orders and keeping stock levels low.
Source: Transport Intelligence/IRU/Upply
Industrial production in Europe still shows high volatility, making the signals of recovery fragile and ambiguous. German factories have slowed again – according to the report, new orders there fell by 3.6% quarter-on-quarter, and exports dropped by 5.2%, which clearly weakens demand for transport, particularly on routes linked to the automotive and machinery supply chains.
At the opposite end is Spain, which is showing much stronger momentum – the August PMI at 54.3 points confirms the fastest rate of growth in almost a year. This contrasting pace of recovery means that today the European transport market is functioning in an environment full of disparities: the south of the continent is accelerating and its industry is generating additional volumes, while Europe’s largest economy remains in a phase of prolonged stagnation.
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Transport rates in Europe in Q3 2025
The increase in contract rates is driven by rising structural costs – driver wages, insurance and road charges. Meanwhile, the rise in spot rates results mainly from seasonal recovery and increased demand for fast-moving consumer goods.
Source: Transport Intelligence/IRU/Upply
Transport rates on selected European routes (QoQ):
- Duisburg – Lille: an increase of 9.1 points on the contract market and 8.2 points on the spot market (rates reached €2.22/km). The strong increase indicates rising demand in northern France and increased FMCG and e-commerce flows ahead of the shopping peak.
- Warsaw – Duisburg: a decrease of 2.4 points on contracts (€1.27/km) and an increase of 0.3 points on spot (€1.30/km). The route reflects the declining condition of German industry. Weaker demand for components, car parts and machinery production is lowering contract rates, but the spot market is boosted by short-term orders and seasonal pressure.
- Madrid – Paris: a decrease of 4.4 points on contracts (€1.23/km) and 1.1 points on spot (€1.30/km). Short-term demand on this route continues to be supported by the FMCG sector and cross-border flows, although pressure from industry remains limited.
Map of spot market
Source: Transport Intelligence/IRU/Upply figures
Selected transport rates on chosen European routes:
| Route | Contract market (€ / km) | Spot market (€ / km) |
| Madrid – Paris | 1.23 | 1.30 |
| Duisburg – Lille | 2.22 | 2.22 |
| Warsaw – Duisburg | 1.27 | 1.30 |
| Duisburg – Madrid | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| Lille – London | 3.89 | 4.30 |
Own analysis based on Transport Intelligence/Upply
Changing global trade directions
In Q3, European ports came under visibly increasing pressure due to a rapid shift in global trade directions. On the export side, a dynamic rebound can be observed – EU exports increased by 8.6% quarter-on-quarter, the strongest rise since 2020. The main drivers were the chemical sector and the machinery and automotive industries, which recorded increases of 24.4% and 5% respectively.
Such strong production demand and intensified trade with the United States pushed contract rates upwards on routes towards ports, reflecting companies’ expectations of further volume growth.
The situation on the import side is completely different, where spot rates are falling, and the market is characterised by weaker short-term demand. This is influenced by deteriorating economic sentiment (the June ESI for the whole EU remained at 94 points), as well as growing uncertainty related to U.S. tariffs and increasing likelihood of greater inflows of cheaper goods from China.
All these factors limit demand pressure on routes from ports to inland cities, causing falling import rates and rising volatility in the transport market serving Europe’s main seaports.
What to expect in the coming months?
The European road transport market is entering the final quarter of the year with clear momentum. The increase in contract and spot rates, the rebound in retail trade – especially in food – and economic improvement in southern Europe create conditions for moderate improvement for hauliers.
At the same time, industry is still developing unevenly, and cost pressure related to rising wages, insurance and road charges does not allow the sector to catch its breath. Additionally, changes in global trade routes increasingly influence market dynamics, supporting higher export rates and changing the structure of European cargo flows.
In the coming months, one can expect the typical year-end increase in rates, especially on routes to the United Kingdom and in the FMCG sector, where pre-Christmas volumes traditionally peak.
A much bigger unknown remains 2026, which may bring a stronger recovery of European industry, especially in Germany and Italy, but at the same time may burden hauliers with a series of road toll increases in many countries. This makes road transport remain in a phase of fragile stabilisation: more orderly and resilient than a year ago, but still vulnerable to fluctuations in demand, regulatory changes and geopolitical tensions.
Key market data – Germany, France, Italy, Spain (Q3 2025)
| Country | Contract rates (index) | MoM | QoQ | YoY | Spot rates (index) | MoM | Since July | YoY |
| Germany | 144.2 | +0.3 | –7.2 | –1.1 | 117.0 | –1.5 | –12.8 |
– GDP forecast for 2025: 0.1% (weakest in G7) – 14/1000 transport companies collapsed in 2024 – 39% of automotive forwarders expect volume decline – Contract rate stability due to capacity reduction |
| France | 123.8 | –0.6 | –1.1 | +2.4 | 127.2 | –1.3 | –5.4 |
– Retail and wholesale: –7.6% YoY – Record household savings – E-commerce share 11% (30–31% in electronics) – Spot market under pressure; possible seasonal rebound |
| Italy | 108.8 | –0.2 | –6.2 | –2.7 | 107.7 | –2.1 | –11.9 |
– Q2 2025 GDP: –0.1% QoQ – Industrial production: –2.7% YoY – U.S. pasta tariffs to 107% from Jan 2026 – Furniture exports to U.S.: –30% – Weak export orders reduce transport demand |
| Spain | 139.3 | +0.9 | –0.5 | +3.9 | 156.7 | –1.7 | +6.1 |
– Q2 2025 GDP: +0.8% QoQ (best in Europe) – FMCG food: +5.5% QoQ – Appliances: +13.3% QoQ – Manufacturing PMI: 54.3 (highest in a year) – Strong consumption and production boost spot rates |
Own work based on Transport Intelligence/IRU/Upply figures
