The study, featured in issue 737 of the Sunday Spotlight, modelled the potential impact on global container shipping if carriers resume using the Suez Canal after months of rerouting vessels around Africa due to Red Sea attacks. While Sea-Intelligence stressed that the reopening scenario remains hypothetical, as the Houthis have not yet declared a ceasefire, the findings illustrate the scale of operational changes that would follow a return to the Suez route.
According to the analysis, approximately 2.1 million TEU of nominal capacity, or 6.5% of the global container fleet, is currently absorbed by the longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope. Services between Asia and Europe, as well as Asia and the U.S. East Coast, each require about four additional vessels per rotation under the diversion. A return to the Suez Canal would immediately release that capacity, shortening voyage times and freeing up ships for redeployment.
Surge in European port volumes expected
Sea-Intelligence’s modelling shows that if carriers were to instantly switch back to the Suez route, the sudden arrival of delayed cargo could double arrivals from Asia for two weeks, resulting in a 39% surge in European terminal volumes compared to the previous record high in March 2025.
Even a more controlled return over eight weeks would still lead to a 10% increase above historical peaks, the report adds. Given that the earlier surge already caused significant congestion at major ports, Sea-Intelligence warns that an unmanaged resumption of Suez transits could once again overwhelm port terminals, storage areas, and hinterland networks.
Volatility and adjustment period ahead
Globally, the reintroduction of Suez transits would have a stabilising effect on vessel supply but could also trigger short-term volatility in freight rates as capacity returns faster than demand adjusts. Sea-Intelligence notes that the transition period would likely involve schedule disruptions, line realignments, and repositioning of empty containers.
Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, emphasised that the analysis is not a prediction of timing but a quantitative scenario designed to highlight operational risks. The firm concludes that a phased and coordinated return would reduce pressure on European infrastructure but could not eliminate congestion risks entirely.
