Germany’s reliance on Red Sea chokepoints exposed

Almost ten per cent of all German imports pass through the Red Sea – and thus via the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This amounted to a trade volume of €136 billion in 2023, according to calculations by the ifo Institute in its latest study for the Ministry.

“Critical raw materials and key industrial inputs arrive in Germany via the Red Sea,” explained ifo trade expert Lisandra Flach. Her conclusion: “This sea passage is therefore of particular geoeconomic importance for Germany.”

Reliance on a handful of chokepoints

The study is the first to provide detailed figures on Germany’s dependence on six central maritime bottlenecks: the Suez Canal, Bab al-Mandab Strait, Strait of Malacca, Taiwan Strait, Strait of Hormuz and the Panama Canal.

The results show just how concentrated global goods flows are on a few routes:

• Suez Canal/Bab al-Mandab: 10% of German imports
• Strait of Malacca: 8.7%
• Taiwan Strait: 7.1%
• Panama Canal: 0.5%
• Strait of Hormuz: 0.4%

“Global trade is concentrated on a small number of sea routes with strategic chokepoints, such as the Suez Canal or the Bab al-Mandab Strait,” said co-author Katharina Erhardt from the University of Düsseldorf. “Blockades or disruptions to these passages, such as the recent Houthi rebel attacks in Yemen, have major economic consequences for Germany.”

Sectors most affected

The study shows that raw materials, chemical precursors and electronic components in particular reach Germany via these routes. For some products, reliance is over 90 per cent, as they are shipped almost exclusively via the Suez Canal.

Sectoral vulnerabilities are also clear:

• Textiles and leather goods: up to 25% of imports pass through Suez or Bab al-Mandab
• Chemical industry: around 6–8% of inputs pass through key chokepoints
• Energy imports (refined petroleum products): up to 21% via the Suez Canal
• Implications for transport and logistics

For the transport and logistics sector, the study underlines the huge dependence on uninterrupted maritime trade through the Red Sea and other chokepoints. Rerouting via longer passages – such as around the Cape of Good Hope – results in sharply higher transport costs, longer transit times and greater supply chain uncertainty, according to ifo.

The authors also stress that the costs of such disruptions are not borne by shipping lines alone, but ripple across the entire supply chain, affecting freight forwarders and road hauliers in Europe. Higher freight rates, delays in container handling at ports and bottlenecks in road and rail onward transport are direct consequences.

Thus, the study provides not only macroeconomic insights but also clear sectoral findings: stability on global sea routes is a basic prerequisite for predictable logistics in Europe.

Policy implications

The authors recommend pushing forward the diversification of supply chains and giving greater weight to geopolitical risks in location and sourcing decisions.

“Even seemingly moderate dependencies can pose major risks when it comes to hard-to-replace intermediate goods,” they warn.

Impact across Europe

As Germany is deeply embedded in European supply chains, disruptions in the Red Sea also affect European transit flows. Many imports arriving at North Sea ports such as Rotterdam, Antwerp or Hamburg first pass through the Suez Canal. Accordingly, blockages or rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope could significantly increase delivery times and costs for Europe as a whole.

Shipowners call for greater role in security structures

The German Shipowners’ Association (VDR) also responded to the report. Chief Executive Martin Kröger stressed that Germany’s prosperity and security of supply depend directly on open sea lanes:

“But we cannot rely on paperwork alone. What is missing is a permanent body in which the federal government and the shipping industry work together regularly. Only in this way can we ensure supply and security in an emergency.”

The VDR pointed out that around two-thirds of all German imports and exports are seaborne, and that the merchant fleet, with nearly 1,800 vessels, forms a backbone of the economy. Kröger also highlighted the security role of shipping companies: in times of crisis they transport not only goods and raw materials but also military equipment.

The ifo study confirms the high degree of reliance on individual sea routes, with dependence exceeding 90 per cent for certain raw materials. Against this backdrop, the VDR called for closer integration of merchant shipping into national and international security structures and for better resourcing of the German Navy to safeguard trade routes.