As reported by the TEG Road Transport Index, the haulage sector saw the sharpest decline, with the index dropping by 12.1 points (9.16%) in January. Despite this monthly fall, haulage prices have increased by 10.3 index points (9.39%) year-on-year.
The courier sector experienced a lesser decline, with the index falling by 7.7 points (5.81%) in January. Compared to a year ago, courier prices have increased by 2.3 index points (1.88%).
“The TEG Haulage Index is down January against December, but within the bounds of what was expected – it happens at the start of every year,” commented Kirsten Tisdale, Senior Logistics and Supply Chain Consultant at Aricia Ltd. “Meanwhile, the TEG Courier is only down 6% versus last month, a bit less than expected, but we know from the IMRG Weekly eCommerce Round Up that online furniture was doing extremely well in January, despite the GFK Consumer Confidence survey showing a reduction in major purchase intent – mixed messages!”
Economic and geopolitical factors weigh on growth
In its latest report, TEG refers to a Reuters survey, stating that the broader economic outlook remains uncertain. Consumer confidence fell in January, with the GfK index dropping by five points. The survey described early 2025 growth as “tepid,” noting contractions in both employment and business optimism.
Inflation remained steady at 2.5% in January, prompting expectations that the Bank of England may lower interest rates from 4.75% to 4.5% in February.
In its latest findings, TEG refers to Statista research, which provides some optimism for the logistics sector. It forecasts global parcel volumes to increase by 59% by 2027 compared to 2022, reaching 256 billion parcels.
In its fuel price analysis, TEG highlights that fuel prices saw a modest increase in January, continuing the upward trend observed since June 2024. Diesel prices rose by 1.6p per litre (1.12%) to 144.12p, though they remain 4.14p lower than in January 2024. Petrol prices increased by 0.88p per litre (0.65%) to 137.11p, still 2.75p lower than a year ago.
According to TEG’s coverage of the Road Haulage Association (RHA), UK hauliers who purchased or leased new or used trucks between 1997 and 2015 may be eligible for compensation as part of the association’s class action lawsuit against truck manufacturers accused of price-fixing. The deadline to opt in is 28 February 2025, with an estimated 600,000 trucks affected. Businesses do not need to be RHA members to participate.
TEG also cites the Association of Fleet Operators (AFP), which warns that the organisation is urging the government to defer MOT tests for 4.25-tonne electric vans due to difficulties in securing test appointments. These vehicles are classified as HGVs and must undergo testing after one year rather than three, creating a shortage of available testing slots.
The AFP proposes a six- to 12-month MOT deferral period for the first two years of testing to allow fleet operators time to secure testing slots.
Mixed signals for 2025
Based on TEG Index data, the index’s decline aligns with historical trends, with haulage and courier prices reflecting seasonal adjustments. Fuel prices continue to rise, though they remain lower than a year ago. Economic uncertainty and geopolitical developments may impact transport and logistics, but growth in global parcel volumes and potential interest rate cuts could offer some relief in the coming months.