The overall TEG Price Index slipped by 0.2 points (0.15%) to 129.5: the first September decline since the index began in 2019. The Haulage Index fell by 0.7 points (0.54%) to 129.0, while the Courier Index rose marginally by 0.4 points (0.31%) to 130.1, TEG data shows.
Articulated vehicle rates saw the sharpest drop, decreasing by 1.6 points (1.3%) to 120.1. This contrasts strongly with previous years, when September typically brought price rises — up 0.8 points in 2024 and 2.5 points in 2023, according to the report.
TEG attributed the off-trend movement to a sharp rise in vehicle availability and a simultaneous decline in demand. The report found that artic availability surged by 37% in September, while demand dropped by 10% following a strong August boosted by the late-summer bank holiday.
Falling fuel prices may also have contributed to downward pressure on rates.
The data also points to a more complex picture in the HGV labour market. Although Adzuna figures cited by TEG show driver vacancies increasing from 4,027 in August to 4,212 in September, the jump in artic availability suggests that many drivers are choosing more flexible work patterns. According to the report, some may have reduced their hours over the summer and returned as the busy season approaches.
Kirsten Tisdale, Senior Logistics and Supply Chain Consultant at Aricia Ltd, suggested that the cyberattack at Jaguar Land Rover may have had ripple effects on the haulage market.
“Any haulier normally involved in those movements will have been looking for work elsewhere, which may explain the TEG Haulage Index not having the uplift one might have expected,” she said.
Broader economic sentiment remained subdued. The Institute of Directors’ Economic Confidence Index dropped to a record low of -74 in September, down from -61 the previous month, while the GfK Consumer Confidence Index also fell by two points. The Bank of England kept interest rates at 4% and forecast inflation to edge up from 3.8% to 4.0%.
According to TEG’s Fuel Watch, diesel prices averaged 141.84p per litre in September — 0.3% lower than in August — while petrol fell by 0.19% to 133.98p per litre. The Competition and Markets Authority noted that fuel margins remain well above historical averages, averaging 8.4% for supermarkets and 9.8% for other retailers in the first half of 2025.
Despite the unusual September figures, TEG anticipates that demand will strengthen in the coming months as the Black Friday and festive peaks approach.
