According to an analysis by ING, European road transport demand is expected to grow by around 1% in 2026, with large differences between countries, freight segments and fleet profiles. Volatility, the report notes, is becoming part of a “new normal” for the sector.
Transport demand improved in 2025 following the sharp contraction two years earlier. However, total transport volumes measured in tonne-kilometres remain on average around 1.5% below earlier peaks. ING expects moderate and stable growth this year, but stresses that the recovery remains fragile and uneven across Europe.
Protectionist trade policies, geopolitical instability and their knock-on effects on supply chains and consumer confidence are set to continue shaping the market in 2026. At the same time, the resilience of goods trade and the flexibility of road transport have helped the sector adapt to disruptions, preventing a deeper or more prolonged downturn.
Industrial goods still weigh on the market
Industrial goods remain the weakest segment for road haulage. Manufacturing activity appears to have reached a low point, but indicators such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index have not yet returned to levels signalling growth.
Energy-intensive industries, including steel and chemicals, continue to struggle with competitiveness, leading to production cuts and site closures across several European countries. Germany, which accounts for more than a quarter of European road transport activity, remains a particular drag on overall volumes. Some relief has come from lower energy prices and government support, while increased investment in defence and infrastructure is expected to support demand later in 2026.
Consumer goods and construction provide support
In contrast, the outlook for consumer goods transport is more positive. Rising purchasing power and persistently low unemployment have supported household spending, with European consumer goods expenditure increasing in the first three quarters of 2025.
Demand for the transport of consumer products is expected to continue outperforming industrial goods in 2026. Construction activity is also forecast to increase, which would translate into higher volumes of building materials transported on European roads. Overall, consumer goods transport shows a more stable outlook than other segments.
The European picture remains highly fragmented. Truck mileage data from Germany point to stagnating volumes, while countries such as Spain and Poland are recording stronger growth in line with more robust economic performance.
ING expects large-scale infrastructure and defence investment programmes to gradually reduce Germany’s negative impact on overall European transport demand over the course of 2026, but regional disparities are likely to persist.
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Reduced capacity offers limited support
Hauliers across Europe reduced capacity following the demand contraction of 2023. According to ING, the European haulage capacity index was nearly 1% lower in late 2025 than a year earlier, reflecting fleet reductions, bankruptcies and the removal of older vehicles from service.
Efficiency gains, including higher vehicle utilisation rates, have also lowered capacity needs. While reduced capacity has provided some market support, it has not been sufficient to restore pricing power across the sector.
Despite some improvement in freight rates, margins remain under pressure. Spot rates, which account for roughly one-fifth of the market, converged with contract rates after the 2023 downturn, underlining the sector’s underlying weakness.
ING notes that EBIT margins at large operators such as DSV and Kühne & Nagel have returned to pre-pandemic levels after the unusually high margins seen between 2021 and 2023. Rising wage costs and higher toll charges, particularly in countries such as the Netherlands and Belgium, will be difficult to pass on fully in 2026. Lower diesel prices may offer partial relief, but not enough to offset all cost increases.
Driver shortages remain a structural challenge
Labour availability continues to constrain future capacity growth. Although recruitment was somewhat easier in 2025, the underlying shortage of truck drivers has not disappeared. The International Road Transport Union still estimates 426,000 unfilled driver positions across Europe.
The workforce is ageing, with an average driver age of 47 and a limited pipeline of younger entrants. Even in Poland, Europe’s largest international road transport market, labour shortages and rising wages are becoming more pronounced. Overall, driver shortages remain a structural challenge rather than a temporary issue.
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Consolidation set to continue
The European road haulage market remains highly fragmented, dominated by small and medium-sized operators alongside a limited number of large international players. ING expects consolidation to continue as smaller companies face increasing pressure from investment requirements related to digitalisation, sustainability and regulatory compliance.
An ageing owner base and succession challenges are also likely to accelerate mergers, acquisitions and market exits, further reshaping the competitive landscape.
