Manners-Bell explains in his article that logistics and supply chains have faced severe disruption since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with European road freight bearing the brunt of transport bottlenecks and driver shortages. A peace agreement could gradually normalise cross-border transport networks, relieve the European truck driver shortage, and revive road freight operations between Russia, Ukraine, and the EU.
Up to 50% of Ukraine’s truck drivers are missing from the workforce
The mobilisation of Ukrainian men for military service has significantly strained the European trucking sector, as Manners-Bell highlights. Poland and Germany, in particular, have felt the impact, given their large Ukrainian driver workforce. The paper reads that 7% of truck drivers in Germany were Ukrainian, with many returning home to fight at the start of the war. Some estimates suggest that Ukraine itself has faced driver shortages of up to 50% in certain areas.
A peace deal would allow for a gradual return of Ukrainian transport workers, helping to ease pressure on European haulage firms. However, Manners-Bell cautions that reconstruction efforts in Ukraine will also create domestic demand for drivers, meaning not all workers will return to the international market immediately.
At the same time, a normalisation of EU-Russia trade flows could revive cross-border trucking operations, currently limited due to EU sanctions on Russian transport companies. As Manners-Bell notes, shipments that once moved freely by road between Russia and the EU are now transhipped at border crossings, adding costs and inefficiencies to supply chains. Should sanctions be lifted, a more efficient road freight system will need to be re-established to accommodate shifts in trade patterns.
Brent Crude has already fallen to $75 per barrel
One of the most immediate effects of a peace deal would be downward pressure on global energy prices, which would directly benefit the transport and logistics sector. Manners-Bell explains that if sanctions on Russian oil were lifted, the price per barrel could drop, reducing fuel costs for trucking firms. While OPEC countries may attempt to stabilise prices through production cuts, a cheaper energy market would likely provide a tailwind for road freight operators across Europe.
Additionally, gas supplies could shift as European economies reconsider energy imports from Russia. Manners-Bell highlights that despite sanctions, Europe has continued to receive Russian LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) shipments, with record volumes arriving at European ports in 2024. A peace agreement could further lower gas prices, providing relief to energy-intensive industries and reducing costs across supply chains.
However, geopolitical tensions remain, with the United States keen to maintain its market share as a major LNG supplier to Europe. Manners-Bell notes that Trump, if re-elected, may resist any move that allows Russia to reclaim its former dominance over Europe’s energy supply.
$486 billion needed to rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure
The destruction of Ukraine’s transport and logistics infrastructure has been severe. Manners-Bell references European Parliament estimates stating that around a third of Ukraine’s roads, bridges, and railways have been damaged or destroyed, alongside warehousing facilities.
The World Bank estimates the cost of reconstruction at $486 billion over the next decade, which, as Manners-Bell points out, will create high demand for road freight, warehousing, and logistics services. Romania is expected to play a crucial role as a key logistics hub, with Constanta port already serving as a major gateway for Ukrainian exports.
Manners-Bell highlights that the shortage of modern warehousing in Ukraine remains a challenge, with estimates suggesting a 500,000 sqm shortfall in Kyiv alone. A peace agreement would trigger investment into warehousing and logistics networks, supporting the redevelopment of supply chains and the movement of goods throughout the region.
“At some point, a deal will be done, and focus will turn to rebuilding”
While Manners-Bell acknowledges that an immediate return to pre-war trade patterns is unlikely, he argues that the logistics sector must prepare for significant shifts. The lifting of sanctions on Russian oil and gas, a revival of road freight between the EU and Russia, and Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction would all reshape European transport networks.
Regardless of when a deal is reached, Manners-Bell suggests that Europe must also prepare for increasing defence expenditures, which could present further opportunities for the logistics sector in military supply chains.
‘At some point (if not now, in the near future) a deal will be done, and the focus will turn to rebuilding Ukraine’s shattered economy.’ The logistics industry will be at the centre of this effort, with road freight playing a pivotal role in the region’s recovery,” Manners-Bell concludes.