While geopolitical tensions, tariff volatility and weak demand in Europe weighed heavily on sentiment, Ti’s analysis suggests that the market has performed better than expected.
“With more confidence growing – as is evident from many of Ti Insight’s indicators – we may be about to see an upturn in buying behaviour which could unlock sustained growth,” the report states.
The global logistics market reached €5.32 trillion in 2024 and is projected to expand by 3.8% by 2029, according to Ti. The sector’s resilience reflects a fundamental structural shift in how global supply chains are organised.
“The global transport and logistics industry has been buffeted by short-term economic shocks whilst at the same time transitioning to cope with new supply chain structures,” notes the report. Manufacturers are increasingly turning to regionalisation and localised production, a move that “influences the type of logistics services required.”
This shift is expected to boost logistics intensity and create more opportunities in short-sea shipping, intermodal transport, and road-based freight.
Growth is strongest in the Asia-Pacific region, where the logistics market is forecast to expand by 5.9% in 2025, while the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is on track for 4.8% growth by 2029, supported by energy and infrastructure investment.
Air and ocean markets stabilise
Despite fears that tariff disruptions and global conflicts would sink trade volumes, the air and ocean freight markets have proven more resilient than anticipated.
Ti attributes this partly to what it calls “lumpy procurement patterns” by US importers, who rushed to place orders before new tariff deadlines. This behaviour created volatility but not collapse.
Moreover, global shipping lines have benefited from the reduction in available capacity caused by diversions away from the Red Sea, while Chinese manufacturers — facing overcapacity — have turned to non-US markets to offload surplus goods.
As a result, the global freight forwarding market rose 6.1% in 2024, reaching €207.6 billion in real terms.
Parcels and e-commerce: reshaped by new rules
The express and small parcels sector has faced major disruption following the US administration’s removal of the “de minimis” customs arrangement, which previously allowed parcels under $800 to enter tariff-free. According to Ti, this change forced some express carriers and postal operators to suspend US-bound services until duty collection systems were implemented.
Despite these challenges, domestic B2C volumes remain strong, particularly in Asia. The region continues to act as the growth engine of the global parcels market, with Ti forecasting 7.9% cumulative growth by 2029.
E-commerce, meanwhile, continues to transform logistics worldwide. Ti reports that the global e-commerce logistics market grew by 14.1% in 2024, reaching €521.9 billion — double its 2019 value. The report attributes this to the rapid expansion of platforms such as Shein and Temu, which have “created new markets as well as captured share from domestic retailers.”
Road freight: patchy but improving
Ti’s regional breakdown reveals a divergent picture in the road freight market.
In Europe, economic stagnation has weighed on volumes, but early signs of recovery are visible.
“Truck toll data suggests that activity is increasing,” Ti notes, highlighting improving manufacturing performance in Spain and Italy.
Germany’s large-scale spending plans in defence and transport infrastructure are also expected to support the sector. Ti forecasts that the European road freight market will grow by 2% annually, reaching €468.8 billion by 2029.
By contrast, the North American trucking industry continues to experience what Ti calls a “freight recession” — a prolonged downturn now spanning 12 quarters. The market remains volatile due to tariffs and low consumer confidence, yet the worst may be over. “The slide appears to be ending,” the report adds, as profitability improves among large carriers through cost-cutting and fleet resizing. The North American road freight market was valued at €465.2 billion in 2024, up 1.2% year-on-year.
Contract logistics slows amid global uncertainty
While some areas of logistics are rebounding, Ti warns that contract logistics, which includes warehousing and outsourcing, will likely see “slower growth in response to rising trade tensions and heightened policy uncertainty.”
Cross-border supply chain disruptions and cautious investment decisions are expected to limit expansion. Ti forecasts 3.3% growth in 2025, slightly below the 3.6% recorded in 2024. Still, structural trends such as nearshoring and e-commerce “may offer pockets of resilience.”
A new era of adaptability
The report’s conclusion is cautiously optimistic. “There will be no return to the ‘globalised’ and predictable world pre-pandemic,” Ti writes, but the industry is becoming more adaptable — and therefore more resilient.
The next growth phase, Ti suggests, will be shaped by government investment. Massive defence spending in Europe and the United States, post-war reconstruction in Ukraine, Syria and Gaza, and ambitious capital projects in the Middle East, Africa, India, China and other BRICS countries will together inject billions into logistics networks and transport infrastructure.
“These investments will not only result in higher volumes and revenues for transport and logistics providers,” the report notes, “but they will also stimulate economic growth and consequently consumer demand.”
In Ti’s view, this evolving landscape will favour companies with “world-class management skills, market intelligence capabilities and flexible corporate structures.” The whitepaper concludes that the stability of the early 21st century has given way to an era shaped by “ever-shifting political, economic, societal and technological forces” — but one that rewards agility, insight and confidence.
Key takeaways
According to Ti’s final summary:
- The geopolitical environment remains unstable and unpredictable.
- The macroeconomic outlook is “not as bad as expected.”
- The economic outlook is improving.
- The level of disruption is lower than feared early in 2025.
- Government investment will be a major growth driver, particularly in defence.
- Supply chains and logistics providers are adjusting to “living with uncertainty” and finding ways to grow within it.
