The TI report finds that the global e-commerce logistics market grew by 7.5% in 2023, reaching a value of $449.8 billion, marking a clear rebound compared to the 5.2% market decline in 2022. This decline was caused by global disruptions in supply chains and, most significantly, the normalisation of online commerce.
After significant increases during the pandemic in 2020-21, the following year saw a return to pre-pandemic levels. Consumer spending declined in 2022 due to high inflation and rising living costs, impacting logistics supporting e-commerce.
However, last year brought renewed growth in online sales. It is worth noting that the value of the e-commerce logistics market in 2023 exceeded the level from 2021 (449.8 billion vs. 441.4 billion in 2021).
Growth across the Atlantic
The largest market for e-commerce logistics was in the North American region, valued at $174.8 billion by the end of 2023, marking an increase of approximately 7.6% annually. It was closely followed by the Asia-Pacific market. Meanwhile, European e-commerce logistics was worth $85.26 billion in 2023, marking an increase of 4.5% annually.
It is worth emphasising that in 2022, while the global market recorded a decline in value, the North American region managed to maintain an upward trajectory with an 8.5% increase. Thanks to this, the region moved to the top of the global ranking. Meanwhile, in 2021, the largest area in terms of the value of logistics services for online trade was Asia and the Pacific.
The strong position of the North American area was mainly due to the dynamic expansion of online sales. While in 2018, online purchases accounted for 9.7% of general retail trade, in Q2 2023, it was almost 15%.
In global e-commerce logistics, last-mile services accounted for 53.3% of the market value in 2023 ($239.8 billion). However, fulfillment also adds value and high-margin services for companies.
It is worth noting that e-commerce logistics has a very local character. As much as 84% of the market value ($378.4 billion) in 2023 was generated in the domestic segment (within individual countries). This percentage remained the same as the previous year.
According to forecasts from the beginning of 2023, TI analysts expect that in the years 2022-2027, the global logistics market supporting e-commerce will grow at an average rate of 10.3% per year. According to their calculations, in 2027, the value of this market will be €683.5 billion, with logistics serving internal markets worth €569.1 billion and logistics providing services for cross-border trade worth €114.5 billion.
E-commerce slump in Germany
As can be seen from the data in the TI report, logistics related to e-commerce in Europe is growing at a much smaller pace than in the North American and Asian markets. The poor condition of our region can be seen, for example, in the results of one of the largest European economies – Germany.
According to the latest estimates from the industry association bevh, gross sales of goods in Germany fell by a double-digit 11.8% in 2023, to €79.7 billion, compared to €90.4 billion in the previous year. The share of e-commerce in overall retail sales (including groceries but excluding sales in pharmacies) dropped from 11.8 to 10.2 percent, whereas in North America, it is nearly 15%.
For the first time since 2020, the industry’s turnover fell below €100 billion. Taking into account turnover generated by telephone, fax, or other ordering channels, total sales in 2023 amounted to €93.6 billion.
“We expect the German e-commerce market to bottom out within this year. The fourth quarter of 2023, with a decline of 7.1%, was the first quarter since the early summer of 2022 with a single-digit decline and indicates stabilisation of sales in the future,” says Gero Furchheim, chairman of bevh and spokesman of the management board of Cairo AG.
To learn more about the latest developments in German e-commerce, see this report by trans.iNFO’s Natalia Jakubowska, which features additional insights from Gero Furchheim.