In its latest Sunday Spotlight (issue 736), Sea-Intelligence analysed the strategic positioning of the major carrier alliances following the network restructuring that took place earlier this year. Using operated capacity as a proxy for market influence, the report found that the Ocean Alliance, made up of CMA CGM, Cosco, OOCL and Evergreen, is not only maintaining but actively consolidating its dominance on both the Transpacific and Asia–Europe trade lanes.
On the Asia-North Europe route, Ocean Alliance’s operated capacity share is projected to increase from around 36–38% to more than 41% by December, marking what Sea-Intelligence described as a “dramatic breakaway.”
Meanwhile, the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, which traditionally held second place, is expected to see its share fall to 24–25%, bringing it closer to MSC and Premier Alliance in what the consultancy calls a “scramble for the distant second, third and fourth positions.”
The same trend is visible on the Transpacific trades. Ocean Alliance’s share on the Asia–North America West Coast route is forecast to peak at 37% by year-end, while its share on the East Coast could reach 38–40% – leaving a competitive gap of almost 20 percentage points over any single rival.
Mediterranean remains fragmented
The Asia-Mediterranean market continues to be more fragmented, but Sea-Intelligence expects Ocean Alliance to increase its operated capacity here as well, directly challenging MSC’s current leadership.
According to Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, these figures illustrate a decisive phase of consolidation for the alliance:
“Ocean Alliance is not just leading, but actively consolidating its dominance on Transpacific and Asia-Europe.”
Sea-Intelligence notes that the analysis is based on an eight-week rolling average to smooth out operational fluctuations and reflect structural trends more accurately.
