Data from the report Transport in Europe – Trends, Data, Analyses 2/2025, published by the Polish Road Transport Institute (PITD), point to a continued weak economic climate in Europe. Despite a rise in the number of spot market freight and increased freight rates, the lack of stable demand and a shortage of carriers are keeping the market on edge.
In April, among the seven countries analysed by the institute, only Spain and Poland surpassed the threshold that indicates optimism. In Spain’s case, this reflects a sustained trend – over the past twelve months, the 100-point mark has only dipped below once, and only slightly.
Polish businesses have only started to show signs of optimism in the past three months – from February to April. By contrast, the Netherlands, which reached values between 99.5 and 100.4 points around the turn of 2024/25, saw a notable decline to 97.7 points in April. A similar trend was recorded in Italy – after scoring 99.8 in January, subsequent readings declined steadily, pointing to worsening sentiment.
The situation in Germany – Europe’s largest economy – remains unchanged, which is far from reassuring. The so-called “sick man of Europe” has not even passed the 90-point mark for the past six months. ESI readings for the European Union and eurozone look slightly better, but still remain well below the optimism threshold.
“The eurozone recorded moderate growth, below expectations, mainly due to persistent challenges such as high energy costs and sluggish productivity growth. Recovery will only be possible once these issues are resolved,” said Vic Vandeput, economist at the Institute of Transport and Logistics in Belgium, in comments to PITD.
Manufacturing PMI: Poland bucks the trend
A similar picture emerges from the manufacturing PMI index. Only Poland has exceeded the 50-point threshold three times this year – in February, March and April. The Netherlands and Spain have managed it just once – in February and January respectively. In March, both came close, but in April their scores dropped again.
Germany’s PMI has been rising slowly but steadily since January, raising hopes for a rebound in industrial output and an increase in freight volumes. Similar signals are coming from France and the eurozone as a whole.
The most significant change, however, was in Italy. In March, it had the lowest index of the countries analysed, but by April it had climbed above 49 points, reaching second place in the ranking.
New directions for European transport
According to Dr Hab. Eng. Adam Koliński, professor at the Higher School of Logistics, there is a clear trend of reconfiguring integrated European supply chains. Market participants are increasingly less inclined to see companies from other EU member states as partners in building synergies and boosting efficiency. This weakening of integration reduces the EU’s competitiveness compared to the United States and China.
“Hungary is turning away from logistics cooperation with EU partners while strengthening ties with partners in the East. Germany is resorting to protectionism and closing borders, which undermines the effective functioning of European transport corridors,” says Dr Koliński.
As a result, new transport corridors are being explored – both Asian routes and enhanced north–south European links. The Balkans and Turkey – the latter playing an increasingly important role in logistics on the New Silk Road – are also emerging as key alternatives.
“The slowdown in Germany, France and the UK means lower export volumes, fewer contracts and greater pricing pressure – especially for carriers from Central and Eastern Europe,” says Jarosław Bartczak, Managing Director for Poland at XPO.
In his view, markets such as Spain, Poland and the Netherlands offer better alternatives thanks to stronger macroeconomic indicators, more stable demand, and improved access to cheaper energy.
“The high ESI index in these countries sends a clear message to the transport, shipping and logistics (TSL) sector: it’s worth building relationships and seeking business opportunities there today – these are the markets that can power European transport in 2025,” he adds.
Transport in a new role: shorter routes, greater efficiency
“Amid economic shifts and the reconfiguration of Europe’s supply chains, intermodal transport may offer a viable alternative,” says Dr Koliński.
This is an important signal for both large logistics operators and small carriers. According to Dr Koliński, small businesses won’t need to invest in intermodal infrastructure themselves – only the nature of the jobs assigned to them will change.
As intermodal networks grow, road transport will increasingly be confined to shorter distances – around 100–200 km – rather than long-haul, cross-continental routes, the PITD report says.
“The key challenge will be to ensure that these shorter hauls remain competitive and cost-effective,” adds Dr Koliński.
Key trends shaping European transport in 2025:
- Decline in export orders from Germany and Italy – historically engines of EU trade, both are seeing reduced demand from industry and falling export activity.
- Rising importance of Poland and Spain – strong macroeconomic indicators and stable demand make them natural growth markets for the TSL sector.
- Diversification of routes and markets – carriers and logistics firms are under pressure to explore new geographies to reduce dependence on stagnating economies.
- Growing importance of short-haul transport – intermodal logistics is redefining the role of road transport, now increasingly limited to “last mile” deliveries of 100–200 km.
