In May and June 2025, the European road transport market was in a state of dynamic transformation. On the one hand, there was a significant increase in the number of loads posted on many routes, and on the other, a reduction in available transport capacity and a drop in carriers’ interest in certain directions.
This led to a steady increase in rates, which, from April onwards, affected all major routes across the EU. These conclusions were drawn by analysts from the Polish Road Transport Institute (PITD) in their report “Transport in Europe. Trends, data, analyses.”
Freight supply surges on key routes
The second quarter saw an increase in the number of loads on 13 of the 18 routes analysed by PITD in May and on 10 in June. Particularly notable were the following routes:
- Germany → France: in May, the number of loads rose by 34%, in June by 49%, and in July by 46% year on year.
- France → Spain: May – 29% increase, June – 14%, July – 57%.
- Netherlands → Poland: May – 29%, June – 21%, July – 30%.
Particularly significant were increases on export routes from Poland, where July marked the first month of growth in a long time. For example, on the Poland → Germany route, July ended with a 10% increase, and on Poland → Netherlands, with 12%.
Freight offers on selected routes on the Trans.eu exchange (January – July 2025)
Source: PITD for Trans.eu
Deficit in transport capacity deepens disparities
Despite the growing number of loads, carrier activity declined. In July, the number of freight searches on the Trans.eu platform fell on 13 of the 18 routes analysed.
“In July, on most routes across Europe, the number of load searches decreased, while the availability of offers increased, reflecting a temporary imbalance between supply and demand, reducing pressure on freight rates and allowing shippers to negotiate better terms,” noted Jorge Lloret Peiró, CEO of Monsala Business SLU.
According to him, this indicates that the transport market has not yet fully regained its balance and is in a transitional phase where carriers are competing more intensely for available freight.
The largest declines in carrier activity were recorded on the following routes:
- Netherlands → Germany: 13% fewer searches year on year in July.
- Germany → Italy: 11% fewer.
- France → Germany: 5% fewer.
Meanwhile, stable or growing carrier interest was seen on routes such as:
- Spain → France: increased activity every month in 2025.
- Italy → Germany: growth in 5 of 7 months.
- Poland → Germany: stable interest, despite a July drop to 2024 levels.
Freight searches on selected routes on the Trans.eu exchange (January – July 2025)
Source: PITD for Trans.eu
Transport rates show a stable upward trend
Although load volumes and carrier activity are seasonal, transport rates have been rising steadily since April.
- France → Spain: up 9% in July.
- Netherlands → Germany: up 2% in July, with the highest increases in May–June.
- Germany → France: 14% in June, 4% in July.
- Poland → Germany: 1% in June, 4.8% in July.
As Marek Chudy, Operations Manager at TSL Antkowiak, notes, cost pressures – such as fuel and wages – are helping to keep rates high.
“The rise in export volumes from Germany and Italy is likely to continue, especially towards France, Switzerland, and Spain. For Poland, a further weakening of exports is possible – particularly to Germany and France – with imports remaining stable. Carriers are expected to actively seek loads after the summer break, which may boost indicators, especially on routes from Poland and Romania. However, strong differences between central and peripheral markets are still expected,” said Chudy.
The expert also pointed out that in the coming months, and up to 2026, the market will enter its traditional year-end slowdown, which will limit export dynamics.
“Possible local declines may occur in transport to Germany and France from Poland, while southern routes (Spain, Italy) remain strong. The end of the year usually brings increased carrier activity as operators seek stable contract orders for the next year. As a result, a short-term increase in search indicators is possible in November–December, followed by a correction in January,” he added.
Average rates on selected routes on the Trans.eu exchange (January – July 2025)
Source: PITD for Trans.eu
So, recovery or transitional phase?
Experts agree that the market remains in a transitional phase.
Marta Guttierez Buron from Betsaide notes that European road transport reflects a cooling trend, with spot indices falling to their lowest level since the end of 2023 and high transport capacity availability combined with subdued rates.
“We are heading towards a model of lower frequency but higher efficiency – prioritising profitable corridors and limiting low-load trips,” said Buron.
In her view, signs of a slight recovery may start to appear towards the end of the year, while early 2026 could bring an increase in volumes and improved freight flows within the EU.
“Nevertheless, caution is necessary: we must consolidate volumes, plan flexibly, and manage costs to maintain service levels,” she added.
Regarding rates, Marek Chudy from TSL Antkowiak stated that the growth dynamics of transport rates in European road transport are expected to slow down.
“Industry forecasts point to possible rate declines in the first quarter of 2026 by 2–3% year on year, if economic demand does not recover. Export routes from Poland and the domestic transport segment will be particularly susceptible to adjustments,” he concluded.
