According to the Comité National Routier (CNR), France’s national road transport monitoring body, diesel costs for road freight fell 9.5% year-on-year, while passenger transport operators saw a 10% drop.
Yet diesel prices remain well above 2020–2021 levels, when fuel was considerably cheaper. For gas-fuelled vehicles, the picture is reversed: natural gas (GNV) costs rose 10.6% on average over the year, after a surge of nearly 20% followed by a sharp correction.
Rising wages, insurance and AdBlue eat into margins
While diesel offered some relief, almost all other cost components increased. Driver wages and charges rose 2.6% in freight and 4.5% in school bus transport, following February’s pay revaluation. Travel allowances were also raised in March 2025, adding 2% to expenses.
Insurance costs surged by 6.1% for TRM operators and 7.7% for TRV, while vehicle financing expenses climbed as well. Maintenance costs increased 2.7% overall, with AdBlue rising nearly 10%.
Administrative and structural costs also crept up: +2% for staff, +3.4% for premises, and +2.5% for services — resulting in a 2.5% rise in overall overheads.
With sector-wide profit margins at just 2–3% — among the lowest in Europe — even these seemingly modest increases leave many operators vulnerable.
Want to see how driver pay compares across Europe? Read the full analysis here
Freight demand stagnates as international activity plunges
CNR data shows demand weakness across the sector. The French road freight activity index (IAST) grew 3.4% in 2024 but is forecast to rise just 0.4% in 2025.
Domestic activity is flat, but international freight has collapsed by almost 12%. This has translated into a sharp fall in truck purchases, with registrations dropping back to Covid-era lows after a temporary rebound in 2024.
These pressures are already feeding through to insolvencies. Figures from Union TLF, France’s transport and logistics federation, show that an average of ten haulage companies collapse every working day. In the second quarter of 2025 alone, 645 insolvencies were recorded — a 7% rise year-on-year and 55% higher than two years ago.
Tariff wars reshape global trade and growth forecasts
The wider economic backdrop is marked by U.S. tariff hikes. Average import duties have climbed from 2.5% at the start of 2025 to 18%. European goods face tariffs of around 15%, while Chinese products are taxed at 30% and Indian goods at 50%. Pharmaceutical imports will face 100% tariffs by year-end.
Global growth is forecast at around 3% in 2025 — though some institutions expect only 2.5%. The Banque de France estimates the tariff shock will cut 0.4 points from French GDP by 2026.
France’s growth is expected at just 0.8% this year, with unemployment rising to 7.6%. Eurozone GDP growth will reach only 1%. The slowdown is widespread: U.S. growth is projected at 1.9%, China at 4.8%, and India at 6.4%.
Crisis spreads across Europe
France is not alone in facing a wave of insolvencies. Belgium saw 724 bankruptcies in its transport and warehousing sector in 2024, while in Hungary one-third of operators are now running at a loss. In Poland, industry representatives describe the situation as the worst in 25 years, with mounting competition from Ukrainian hauliers reshaping the market.
Outlook 2026: Fuel stable, but cost pressures persist
Energy demand is slowing, with Brent crude forecast to remain under 70 dollars per barrel in 2026 — possibly falling as low as 62.
For hauliers, this means fuel prices may remain stable, but wage, insurance and maintenance costs are unlikely to ease. Combined with weak demand and rising insolvencies, margins remain under severe strain heading into 2026.
