The US suspended the de minimis regime on 29 August, meaning that goods previously entering duty-free under the US$800 threshold are now subject to full customs clearance and duties. This follows an earlier move in May that applied the measure to shipments from China and Hong Kong. Combined with new customs duties, the change is expected to depress transport volumes at least through the autumn.
According to Upply, this shift represents “bad news for shipping companies and large non-vessel-operating common carriers (NVOCCs)” who had relied on steady flows of small-parcel traffic.
Carriers move to stem falling rates
The barometer notes that freight rates fell sharply during the summer, with major forwarders and shipping lines competing to cut prices. However, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), which controls more than 20% of global container capacity, has now moved to adjust services. On 1 September, the carrier announced capacity reductions on Asia–Europe lanes at the end of the month, citing an expected slowdown in demand during China’s Golden Week holidays.
Analysts suggest that other carriers may follow suit, while the industry is watching whether large freight forwarders such as DSV-Schenker, DHL and Kuehne + Nagel will align with rate increases after months of eroded margins.
Transatlantic trade faces tariff shock
The transatlantic trade is also set to feel the impact of the new US tariff regime. A joint statement published on 21 August confirmed that many European exports will be subject to a ceiling tariff of 15%. While certain sectors such as generic pharmaceuticals and aircraft parts were excluded, others face higher costs.
Upply estimates that France–US containerised exports could fall by 8–10% in the short term as producers, traders and distributors renegotiate margins to share the additional burden. For American consumers, retail price increases are expected in the range of 2–5%.
Whether these developments translate into a wider crash in transatlantic freight rates remains uncertain. The barometer concludes that much will depend on how carriers and forwarders balance capacity management with shifting demand over the coming months.
