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Hormuz starts moving again, but hundreds of ships remain trapped

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Ships have begun leaving the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz under a UN-backed evacuation plan, but maritime traffic through one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints remains far from normal.

The International Maritime Organization said on Wednesday that the first vessels had started moving under its evacuation framework, which was activated this week after a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States.

According to the IMO’s latest update, 57 transits had taken place under the plan by the morning of 25 June, with an estimated 1,100 seafarers evacuated. The organisation said it would update transit figures every morning at 10:00 GMT.

The plan is intended to allow ships currently trapped inside the Persian Gulf to leave the region safely through the Strait of Hormuz. Around 11,000 seafarers are expected to be evacuated from vessels stranded in the Gulf, while the IMO says around 20,000 seafarers, port workers and offshore crews have been affected by the wider disruption.

Controlled exits, not normal sailing

However, the operation does not mean the Strait of Hormuz has returned to normal commercial use. Under the IMO framework, vessels are being moved out through a controlled process. Ships are told not to proceed towards the Strait or waiting areas independently, but to wait until they are contacted through the coordinated mechanism involving the IMO, UKMTO and the MICA Center.

The IMO says this sequencing is needed to avoid congestion and reduce navigational risks. Vessel movements may also be paused for safety, security or naval deconfliction reasons.

Two temporary exit routes are available. One runs through Iranian waters, while the other uses Oman / US-coordinated waters. The existing Traffic Separation Scheme through the Strait is not being used because of the reported mine risk.

According to the IMO’s operational guidance, the main hazards remain mines, restricted navigation space and high traffic density. Shipowners and masters are still responsible for carrying out their own voyage risk assessments before taking part in the evacuation.

Reuters reported that at least two dry bulk vessels and one cargo ship had sailed through Hormuz under the scheme on Wednesday, based on LSEG ship-tracking data. At least 35 smaller vessels, including dry bulk, cargo and container ships, as well as oil tankers and tugs, were preparing to transit, according to Reuters’ analysis of LSEG and MarineTraffic data.

Tankers are also moving, but the backlog remains large

Separate tanker movements have also started to ease part of the bottleneck. Reuters reported that three stranded tankers carrying a combined 5 million barrels of crude oil were exiting the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. It was not clear whether those tankers were moving under the IMO evacuation scheme.

Other traffic through Hormuz has also picked up in recent days. Reuters, citing Kpler analysis, said voyages had risen to more than 25 ships per day, compared with around 10–11 daily sailings earlier in the crisis. That remains well below the pre-conflict average of around 125 daily sailings.

The scale of the backlog remains substantial. IMO and market estimates cited by Reuters put the number of ships stranded inside the Gulf at between 500 and 600, including as many as 100 tankers.

Allianz Research has given a broader estimate, saying around 1,150 cargo-carrying ships, with an estimated vessel and freight value of $125 billion, are waiting to resume operations in the Gulf. The insurer said that even if the US-Iran agreement holds, international assurances of safe passage would be needed before traffic could return to pre-war levels.

Shipping costs and risk remain elevated

The reopening of controlled eastbound exits may help reduce pressure on some stranded vessels and crews, but it does not yet restore ordinary Gulf shipping. Reuters reported that the IMO scheme does not support ships entering the Gulf to pick up oil cargoes from Gulf producers. 

The disruption has already affected shipping costs. Reuters reported that tanker rates have surged in recent days because of tight vessel availability and safety concerns, including the risk of floating mines.

Marine insurance has remained available during the conflict, according to Allianz Research, but the insurer said the main issue for shipowners has been the risk to crews and vessels when transiting a conflict zone rather than insurance availability alone.

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