Hours after the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire was announced, Israel launched its heaviest strikes on Lebanon in weeks, hitting Beirut, the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon. The truce had been presented by Trump as a deal under which Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but AP says Tehran reacted to the Lebanon strikes by halting tanker movements and then closing the waterway in protest.
Even before the Lebanon strikes, container shipping players were already questioning whether the strait was genuinely open.
“Despite headlines to the contrary, and Trump’s insistence on this on social media, the Strait of Hormuz is de facto not open,” shipping analyst Lars Jensen wrote in a LinkedIn post on the latest situation in Hormuz.
Jensen argues that the strait cannot be considered genuinely open while passage remains politically controlled, conditions are unclear and major carriers still see the route as too risky. Reuters’ latest reporting broadly supports that reading.
In response to the escalation in Lebanon, oil prices climbed again after an initial drop driven by the ceasefire. Reuters reported that Brent rose to $98.44 a barrel and WTI to $97.88, as traders reassessed the risk that disruption to Gulf flows would not ease quickly after all.
