After tensions escalated sharply and the threat of fresh US strikes loomed, US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran late on Tuesday, 7 April. Israel backed the move on Wednesday, 8 April, on the condition that Iran halt hostile actions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while talks are due to begin in Islamabad on 10 April.
The ceasefire is not a full peace deal. It is a temporary pause in direct US-Iran hostilities, brokered with Pakistani mediation, and tied to Iran allowing shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. Even that framework remains fragile: Reuters reports that Lebanon is not clearly covered from Israel’s perspective, while other parts of the arrangement (including how Hormuz transit will work in practice) are still being contested.
Financial markets reacted immediately. Reuters reports that Brent crude fell about 16% to $91.70 a barrel after the ceasefire announcement, as traders priced in the prospect of oil and gas moving again through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. But the same Reuters report stresses that physical oil markets remain under strain, with disrupted flows and tight supply still feeding through the system.
Shipping, by contrast, is responding far more cautiously. Maersk said the ceasefire “may create transit opportunities” through Hormuz, but does not yet provide “full maritime certainty”, and the carrier is not changing service plans for now.
That caution is also reflected in the early industry reading. Shipping analyst Lars Jensen wrote on LinkedIn that, a few hours after the ceasefire was announced, it had “not yet led to any change in the pattern of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz”. His view fits the broader picture emerging on Wednesday: a ceasefire may reopen Hormuz on paper, but normal shipping confidence has not returned yet.
Shipping may restart unevenly
Even if the strait is formally reopened, the first commercial reaction may be selective. Outbound vessels already in the Persian Gulf have a strong incentive to leave. Re-entry is a different calculation, especially for operators who have spent weeks dealing with missile threats, war-risk premiums, suspended bookings and emergency contingency plans. Maersk’s wording reflects exactly that hesitation.
The scale of the disruption also suggests that any restart will be messy. Reuters reports that around 130 million barrels of crude and 46 million barrels of refined fuel were stranded on roughly 200 tankers in the Gulf during the crisis. Even with passage resuming, that points to congestion, staggered departures and delays rather than an instant return to normal traffic.
There is also still uncertainty over the rules of passage. Reuters reports that the ceasefire includes the reopening of Hormuz and that Iran says safe passage is possible, but questions remain over how transit would be managed in practice and under what conditions. A separate Reuters report says Iran has proposed charging fees for ships using the strait, while Oman had not confirmed any such agreement and the legal basis remains contested.
Read more: Up to $2m demanded from some ships in Hormuz
