In an analysis published on 23 December 2025, Xeneta described 2026 as a potential transition year rather than a moment of normalisation. Since then, fresh market data and carrier announcements have added nuance to that outlook – without removing the underlying uncertainty.
Xeneta’s core message remains unchanged at the start of 2026: security in the Red Sea is the critical factor. After more than two years of diversions around the Cape of Good Hope following attacks on commercial vessels linked to the Yemeni Houthi movement, carriers continue to treat the region as high risk.
According to Xeneta, a handful of transits or short-term improvements will not be enough to trigger a broad return. Shipping lines are likely to require sustained stability, acceptable insurance conditions and predictable chartering terms before committing significant capacity back to the Red Sea.
Read more: Gemini won’t return to Red Sea, Maersk might
Early carrier moves, but no market-wide shift
Since the publication of Xeneta’s December analysis, some carriers have taken tentative steps towards shorter routings. In particular, services announced by CMA CGM using the Suez Canal on full loops have been widely interpreted as a test of improved conditions.
Xeneta’s subsequent market commentary, however, suggests these moves should not be overstated. Different carriers are pursuing different strategies, and there is no coordinated or industry-wide return underway. For now, the market remains fragmented, with most capacity still routed via the Cape of Good Hope.
Capacity release could be sudden and disruptive
One of the most important risks highlighted by Xeneta is what happens if a broader return does begin. Diversions around southern Africa have added roughly 10–15 days to Asia–Europe transit times, absorbing large amounts of vessel capacity and tightening supply on key trades.
A widespread shift back to Suez would free up that capacity relatively quickly. Xeneta warns that, if this coincides with the delivery of new container ships ordered during the boom years, the market could move rapidly from tightness to oversupply – particularly on Asia–Europe routes.
Such a scenario would put immediate downward pressure on spot freight rates and could catch both carriers and shippers off guard.
Xeneta’s more recent weekly market updates reinforce the view that volatility remains a defining feature of the container market as 2026 begins. While spot rates have already softened on some lanes, capacity remains constrained by longer routings and network inefficiencies.
The key risk, according to Xeneta, is timing. A change in routing patterns could alter the supply–demand balance within months, leaving shippers exposed if contracts were agreed under very different assumptions.
Contract strategy back under scrutiny
After a prolonged period of irregular services and enforced diversions, the potential reopening of the Red Sea would once again reshape the relationship between spot and contract markets.
Xeneta continues to argue that flexibility will be crucial in 2026. Greater use of index-linked pricing, shorter contract durations or diversified sourcing strategies could help shippers reduce the risk of being locked into rates that no longer reflect market realities if capacity conditions change quickly.
Even if more services begin transiting the Red Sea this year, Xeneta cautions against expecting an immediate return to reliable schedules. Network reconfigurations, changes to vessel rotations and possible alliance adjustments are likely to continue disrupting services in the early stages of any transition.
As a result, shippers may still need to build buffers into their planning, despite the prospect of shorter transit times via Suez.
