“The transitions ahead – to zero carbon, to digital systems, to new trade routes – must be just transitions. They must empower, not exclude. They must build resilience, not deepen vulnerability,” said UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan at the launch of the report.
By May 2025, traffic through the Suez Canal had fallen to around 70% below 2023 levels, forcing ships onto the longer Cape of Good Hope route. The average length of a maritime voyage increased to 5,245 miles in 2024, compared with 4,831 miles in 2018.
The rerouting drove a surge in ton-miles, which climbed by 5.9% in 2024 despite trade volumes rising only 2.2%. This explains why many European importers faced delivery delays, higher transport costs, and disruption to inland distribution networks.
Freight rates reflected this pressure. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) averaged 2,496 points in 2024, up 149% year-on-year.
“Freight rate volatility is becoming the norm, driven by geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, and fragile supply and demand fundamentals,” according to UNCTAD.
Tariff battles and new port fees add to costs
In addition to rerouting, shippers face growing policy-driven costs. UNCTAD points to a wave of new tariffs and trade restrictions, as well as planned US port fees targeting certain foreign-built and foreign-operated vessels. The organisation warns these measures could further distort global trade patterns and put vulnerable economies at greater risk.
Small island developing states (SIDS) and least developed countries (LDCs) are expected to bear the brunt of these changes due to their dependence on imported goods and limited negotiating power with carriers.
Fleet expansion meets slow fuel transition
On 1 January 2025, the world merchant fleet stood at 112,500 ships with 2.44 billion dwt capacity. Only 8% of the fleet tonnage is equipped to run on alternative fuels, though this share rises to 53% for new orders. For Europe’s ports and operators, this signals an urgent need to expand fuel infrastructure.
LNG bunkering facilities are already available at around 200 ports worldwide, including several in Northern Europe. However, uptake of other low-carbon fuels remains limited, and the sector faces mounting pressure as the IMO Net-Zero Framework approaches.
The Framework is expected to be adopted in October 2025 and would introduce a global fuel standard alongside greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing from 2028. A new fund is planned to support developing countries in adapting to the measures. If agreed, the rules would enter into force in spring 2027.
Despite industry decarbonisation efforts, shipping’s GHG emissions rose by 5% in 2024. UNCTAD underlines that without stronger measures, emissions are unlikely to peak soon.
On ship recycling, the Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships entered into force in June 2025, covering about 90% of the global market. This marks a major step for European and global shipowners, many of whom have faced scrutiny over sending vessels to substandard yards.
Seafarer rights back in the spotlight
UNCTAD also highlights labour issues in the maritime sector. The number of abandoned seafarers reached record levels in 2024, reflecting gaps in enforcement and the financial strains of operators. Amendments to the Maritime Labour Convention (MLC) will enter into force in 2027, strengthening seafarers’ rights to repatriation and shore leave.
Digital ports and new trade links emerge
Europe’s ports are not only adjusting to rerouted traffic but also to increasing demands for efficiency and resilience. UNCTAD stresses the importance of maritime single windows, port community systems, and robust cybersecurity to safeguard operations.
Africa’s liner shipping connectivity index (LSCI) rose by 10% between June 2024 and June 2025, demonstrating that developing regions are also gaining links to global trade networks. For European operators, this trend means more competition but also potential new markets.
Overall, UNCTAD describes the outlook for 2025 as one of fragile stability. Trade growth will continue but remain subdued. Risks include prolonged conflicts, trade policy shifts, and the costs of adapting to decarbonisation rules.
