European companies are preparing for at least another two years of instability in global supply chains as geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty and shifting trade policies continue to unsettle operations. That is the picture emerging from a comprehensive Maersk survey of more than 900 European businesses, which shows a clear consensus: the era of predictable global logistics is not returning any time soon, and companies are now forced to adapt structurally rather than wait for calmer conditions.
According to the survey, four in five supply chain leaders expect disruptions to persist for 12–24 months, while 78% anticipate that geopolitical dynamics, international regulations and tariffs will affect their operations over the same period. Almost half of respondents described themselves as deeply concerned about the geopolitical climate, and four out of five said supply chain challenges are already restraining business growth.
The findings reflect a broader shift underway in European logistics. The external environment remains volatile, but businesses are becoming more proactive. As Aymeric Chandavoine, President Europe at Maersk, put it, “Now is not the time to lament the cards we’ve been dealt – now is the time to take action and grow.”
Tariffs and geopolitics re-emerge as central supply chain risks
European businesses face a combination of challenges that have sharpened since early 2025. The survey shows that companies expect three dominant impacts from the geopolitical environment:
- Fluctuations in import/export costs (46%)
- Increased trade tariffs (43%)
- Uncertainty in global trade policies (40%)
These concerns are not theoretical. Maersk’s own customs data demonstrates how quickly the operating environment can shift. When the United States announced its tariff package on 2 April 2025, companies were suddenly paying average tariff rates of 54% relative to container load on US imports. Although these rates settled afterwards, they continued to fluctuate, underlining the unpredictability of tariff regimes.
For Lars Karlsson, Maersk’s Global Head of Trade & Customs Consulting, passively waiting for clarity is no longer an option. “Waiting and doing nothing is the worst thing cargo owners can do,” he warns. His team observed that companies which immediately consolidated their customs data on Maersk’s Trade and Tariff Studio platform were better prepared for subsequent tariff changes than those who adopted a wait-and-see approach.
This heightened tariff risk also helps explain why nearly one in two European companies now say they are “very or extremely” concerned about the geopolitical landscape.
A structural pivot: diversification, buffers and alternative routes
Faced with a prolonged period of uncertainty, European businesses are shifting away from short-term fixes and moving towards deeper structural change.
The survey shows that:
- 4 in 5 businesses have strengthened relationships with logistics providers, recognising that reliable partnerships help mitigate shocks.
- A similar proportion have strengthened ties with key suppliers.
- 3 in 4 are adapting to alternative trade routes, a notable rise compared to 2024.
- 3 in 5 are investing in supply chain visibility and agility technology.
- Nearly 2 in 3 have increased or plan to increase inventory or safety stock.
This represents a significant rethinking of the cost–resilience equation. For years, efficiency and lean operations dominated. Now, companies are accepting higher inventory costs and more complex supplier portfolios in exchange for greater resilience.
Maersk VP Ahmed Bashir notes that visibility and agility are becoming essential: companies want to reconfigure operations quickly, switch modes when needed and avoid bottlenecks. That capability, he argues, now defines competitive advantage.
Reliability and the consequences of unpredictability
The report also highlights a growing emphasis on reliability. 75% of European businesses consider reliability “very important” or “the top priority”, and 58% say their main concern is on-time arrival at destination.
The operational impact of unpredictability is illustrated by Barilla, which exports goods from Italy to global markets. Transit time fluctuations — for example, 30-day routes extending to 45 — force the company to build buffer stocks, absorb additional storage costs and face the risk of products approaching expiry. As Barilla notes in the report, “An unreliable logistics service can become very expensive.”
When faced with reliability issues:
- Almost 1 in 2 businesses diversify logistics providers.
- 2 in 5 collaborate more closely with existing providers.
- 1 in 4 switch modes, including to more expensive air freight.
This shows companies are not simply absorbing disruptions; they are actively redesigning networks to avoid them.
Sourcing diversification accelerates sharply
The Maersk survey confirms a substantial acceleration in sourcing diversification:
- 74% of businesses are diversifying suppliers.
- 72% are sourcing or planning to source from multiple geographies.
- This represents a marked increase from 2024, when just over half were considering new sourcing locations.
Emerging European markets — including Poland, Turkey, Romania and Morocco — are gaining attention due to proximity to end markets, reduced exposure to distant disruptions and, in some cases, lower labour costs. The report also notes that intra-European trade has tripled since 2010, reaching approx. €3 trillion in 2024.
Maersk experts emphasize that near-sourcing is not easy or immediate. Businesses face short-term disruption while rebuilding supplier relationships and adjusting production. But as Regional Head of Implementation Jordi Avellaneda de la Calle puts it: “The upfront cost of reconfiguring a supply chain network is high, but so is the cost of doing nothing.”
A new operating baseline: volatility as the default
The strongest message from the Maersk survey is that European companies no longer treat volatility as an exception. It has become the operating baseline. Businesses recognise that black swan events are no longer rare, tariff regimes can change with little warning, and geopolitical tensions are capable of redirecting established trade flows within months. In this environment, a reactive approach is no longer viable.
As Aymeric Chandavoine notes, European businesses are increasingly unwilling to “sit back and wait for volatility to ease.” Instead, they are reshaping supply chains to withstand uncertainty. That means widening supplier portfolios, deepening relationships with logistics partners, investing in visibility tools, holding additional safety stock where required, and building routes and networks that can flex when disruptions occur. Reliability and predictability, rather than speed alone, are becoming central to these decisions.
For the European road transport sector, these shifts translate into sustained demand for adaptable networks, stronger cross-border coordination, and closer cooperation between shippers, carriers and 3PLs. The turbulence is set to continue, but companies appear more prepared — and more willing — to redesign their supply chains around it.
