According to the latest report by the analytics firm CLEAR International, forecasts for the industry have been significantly revised. Not long ago, annual growth of over 10% was expected; today, analysts are forecasting just 6%. Growth is expected across most Western European countries, although the outlook in markets such as Austria and Switzerland remains uncertain.
Interest rates are falling, but companies remain hesitant
The European Central Bank’s decision to cut the refinancing rate to 2.4% in April 2025 – mirrored by similar moves from other central banks in the region – created favourable conditions for investment. Optimistic GDP growth forecasts in Europe’s largest economies also supported the sector.
However, the situation was complicated by an unexpected move from the United States, which imposed high import tariffs. Retaliatory measures from other countries not only deepened tensions but also undermined business confidence, leading to delays in planned investments in transport equipment. Although the direct impact of the tariff war is assessed as moderate, the anticipated increase in trailer demand has clearly shifted to the second half of the year.
Uncertainty holding back purchasing decisions
As highlighted in CLEAR International’s report, the prevailing climate of uncertainty remains a major barrier to investment. Trailer registrations are forecast to rise in most countries in the region, but Austria and Switzerland may lag behind.
Germany saw a particularly weak first half, but forecasts indicate improvement in the second half of the year. According to OECD leading indicators, economic activity in countries such as the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain is slightly above the long-term trend, suggesting a gradual recovery. Nevertheless, companies remain cautious about committing to major capital expenditures.
After growth, a sharp decline
Following strong growth in 2021–2022, the trailer market once again experienced declines in 2023–2024. In 2024 alone, registrations fell by more than 10% compared to the previous year.
A further blow was dealt by the near-total disappearance of exports to Russia and Belarus – once key markets for Western European manufacturers. As a result, companies were forced to seek new sales channels, often in much more competitive environments.
At present, most trucks and trailers sold in Russia are believed to come from China, which has substantial production capacity. This shift has had a particularly negative impact on exporters from Germany and other Western European countries.
Full recovery not expected until 2027
Despite the current challenges, CLEAR International’s report offers the industry some cautious optimism. Sales are expected to pick up from the second half of 2025, with a full return to 2022 levels projected by 2027. The best results are anticipated in 2027–2028, which could rival the record years of 2008 and 2018.
Additionally, demand for road transport (measured in tonne-kilometres), which declined by 4% in 2023, stabilised in 2024 and is forecast to rise in 2025. Industry growth will be driven by fleet modernisation, the energy transition, and increasing logistics needs linked to the restructuring of supply chains.
“The outlook for the Western European trailer market in 2025 has been dampened by the tariff wars waged by the United States and its trading partners. This has reduced business confidence among companies that purchase transport assets such as trailers. Demand growth prospects have been halved in 2025,” commented Gary Beecroft, Director of CLEAR International.
