Global trade continues to expand despite the sharp rise in tariffs imposed by the United States this year, according to the latest update to the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker. The report, prepared with the NYU Stern School of Business, finds that although protectionist measures have slowed momentum, the world economy remains deeply interconnected and fears of deglobalisation or large-scale regionalisation are not supported by data.
The special October 2025 update comes amid renewed trade tensions and a wave of tariff hikes by the U.S. administration. Yet, rather than reversing globalisation, the report concludes that trade volumes are proving remarkably resilient. DHL and NYU Stern now project world trade to grow by 2.5 per cent annually between 2025 and 2029, only slightly below the 3.1 per cent pace expected earlier this year.
“Trade barriers do not serve the world’s best interests,” said John Pearson, chief executive of DHL Express. “But we must never underestimate the creativity of buyers and sellers around the world who want to do business with each other.”
Growth holds, despite tariff headwinds
According to DHL, international trade expanded faster in the first half of 2025 than in any comparable period since 2010, once the temporary pandemic rebound years are excluded. Much of this acceleration was linked to companies front-loading shipments to the U.S. ahead of tariff increases, as well as China’s strategic redirection of exports to other regions.
While the United States still accounts for around 13 per cent of global imports and 9 per cent of exports, most countries have avoided following Washington’s lead in raising barriers. As a result, the global impact of the new tariffs has been limited.
The downgrade in growth expectations, DHL notes, is primarily concentrated in North America, where projected trade expansion has fallen from 2.7 per cent to 1.5 per cent per year over the five-year period.
By contrast, Latin America and the Middle East and North Africa are now expected to perform better than previously forecast, supported by stronger commodity demand and higher oil export volumes.
A reshaped, but not fractured, global network
The Tracker finds that direct trade links between the U.S. and China continue to erode. In the first seven months of this year, U.S. imports from China fell to 9 per cent of total goods imports, down from 13 per cent in 2024 and 22 per cent in 2017. However, DHL cautions that much of China’s manufacturing footprint remains embedded in supply chains that route through third countries, especially in Southeast Asia. The supposed “decoupling” between the two largest economies therefore appears narrower than headline numbers suggest.
Professor Steven A. Altman, who leads the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern, said the data challenges widespread assumptions about the retreat of globalisation.
“Trade is crossing the longest average distance on record, and geopolitical conflicts have reshaped only a small fraction of the world’s international activity,” he observed.
The average distance travelled by traded goods reached 4,990 kilometres in the first half of 2025: the highest ever recorded. Meanwhile, the share of goods traded within the same region fell to around 50.7 per cent, another record low.
These figures contradict claims that production is rapidly “nearshoring” to reduce exposure to geopolitical risks. Rather, DHL argues, supply chains are being re-routed, not re-shored.
Subtle rebalancing rather than bloc formation
Despite clear tensions between Washington and Beijing, the study finds no evidence that the global economy is dividing into self-contained blocs. The majority of trade, investment and information flows still occur among traditional allies.
In 2024, goods trade between aligned nations was three times greater than between rival groups; for greenfield foreign investment, the ratio was nine to one, and for mergers and acquisitions it reached twenty to one. In DHL’s view, this imbalance means that the world economy would require only limited structural adjustments even if geopolitical competition intensifies.
Nevertheless, some shifts are evident. China’s exports to ASEAN countries rose by 15 per cent in the first eight months of 2025, equivalent to an additional 56 billion U.S. dollars in trade. Exports to Africa jumped 25 per cent, while shipments to the European Union grew 8 per cent.
These increases together offset a 15 per cent fall in Chinese exports to the U.S. over the same period.
Regional contrasts emerge
Trade patterns in 2025 also reveal striking regional contrasts. Sub-Saharan Africa saw the fastest growth in trade values, up 9.6 per cent year on year in the first half, followed by North America (7.0 per cent) and Latin America (5.4 per cent).
Among individual economies, Ireland, Switzerland and Slovenia recorded the strongest growth in export and import values, reflecting early U.S. demand for pharmaceuticals and precision goods ahead of tariff deadlines.
In contrast, European trade remained broadly stable, benefiting from some of the redirected Chinese exports but constrained by sluggish domestic demand. The Middle East, buoyed by higher energy exports, has seen its outlook upgraded — a reminder that traditional resource trade remains a key driver of connectedness even in an era of decarbonisation.
Globalisation proves durable
The DHL Global Connectedness Index, which measures the depth and breadth of international flows across trade, capital, information and people, remains close to its record 2022 level of roughly 25 per cent. Far from retreating, globalisation appears to be holding steady, adapting to shifting trade routes and political realities.
For logistics companies, the findings underline the need for long-term planning that reflects a world of longer supply chains rather than shorter ones. DHL notes that while direct U.S.-China trade may be declining, the embedded Chinese content in global production continues to circulate via intermediate hubs. Hauliers and freight forwarders are therefore urged to strengthen visibility across second- and third-tier suppliers, rather than betting solely on nearshoring.
The data, which draws on more than twenty-five sources and over twenty million data points, is current through mid-2025. DHL plans to release a full update of the Global Connectedness Index in early 2026.
“Globalisation has not gone into reverse,” said Altman. “It is evolving — and the data shows that, despite the headlines, the world remains connected.”
