Europe’s ageing trailer fleet is forcing a replacement-driven recovery

According to the latest analysis of the European trailer market published by ING, the paradox shaping the next phase is simple. Europe has enough trailers, but too many of them are old. Quality, reliability and compliance are now becoming more decisive than sheer volume. As a result, the recovery expected in 2026 is likely to be driven by replacement demand rather than expansion.

Trailer deliveries across Europe fell sharply after the post-pandemic boom of 2021–22. In several countries, new registrations dropped to between 60 and 80 per cent of pre-pandemic levels in 2025, as fleet owners scaled back investment in response to weaker transport demand. Rental and leasing companies also delayed purchases, while major consolidation moves — including DSV’s acquisition of DB Schenker — created natural pauses as combined fleets were reviewed.

Manufacturers responded by cutting output and introducing short-time working, with production constraints persisting well into 2025. According to ING, new registrations now appear to have bottomed out in key markets such as Germany, with output gradually improving towards the end of the year. This stabilisation does not yet signal a strong rebound, but it suggests the market has passed its low.

A fleet that keeps growing and ageing

Despite falling sales, the European semi-trailer fleet has continued to expand. The total installed base across the EU, EFTA and the UK reached an estimated 3.1 million units in 2024, around one per cent higher than a year earlier. Since 2015, the fleet has grown by more than one-third, even as transport performance has lagged behind.

Ageing is accelerating. Dutch fleet data — often seen as a reliable bellwether — show that nearly 40 per cent of trailers are now at least ten years old. ING suggests that the European average is likely even higher. Low remarketing values and an oversupplied used market have discouraged divestment, making it unattractive for operators to shrink fleets even during a downturn.

Many older trailers have been parked rather than sold, preserving theoretical capacity while contributing little to actual utilisation. This has widened the gap between fleet size and freight demand, but it has also masked the growing technical strain within the system.

Excess capacity still has a purpose

The divergence between capacity and demand is often presented as inefficiency. Yet ING argues that holding additional trailers still makes strategic sense for many operators. Demand has become less predictable, and trailers are relatively cheap to retain compared with tractors. Increasing the truck-to-trailer ratio provides flexibility without requiring more drivers.

Trailers are also increasingly used as temporary storage at logistics hubs, blurring the line between transport equipment and warehousing. At the same time, a long-term structural shift from drawbar trailers to semi-trailers continues to support fleet expansion, even in countries with strong drawbar traditions such as Germany.

In this context, surplus capacity serves as operational insurance but only up to a point. As fleets age, maintenance costs rise and reliability declines, eroding the value of keeping equipment “just in case”.

Efficiency improves, but does not solve ageing

Recent years have seen a gradual improvement in fleet efficiency. The cancellation of the EU’s “return home” rule, alongside advances in digitalisation and artificial intelligence, is beginning to reduce empty running and improve utilisation. A Transporeon survey cited by ING found that 42 per cent of carriers now use AI for pricing and lane optimisation, while 31 per cent apply it to driver scheduling and route planning.

Empty vehicle kilometres across the EU have been declining steadily, supported by telematics, capacity-monitoring systems and tighter integration with transport management platforms. Differentiated truck tolls based on distance and emissions may reinforce this trend by encouraging higher load factors.

However, efficiency gains cannot fully offset the effects of ageing. As trailers approach the end of their economic life, reliability risks increase and the “technical reserve” diminishes. At that point, optimisation alone is no longer sufficient.

Replacement pressure intensifies

This is where the recovery dynamic changes. Spare capacity and weak freight growth provide little justification for expanding fleets, but quality considerations increasingly favour replacement. Maintenance costs have risen sharply due to wage inflation and labour shortages, making refurbishment less attractive than in the past. ING notes that the recent refurbishment trend has faded as the market has shifted from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market.

For specialised equipment, replacement thresholds are often clearly defined. In refrigerated transport, for example, engine replacement after 20,000–25,000 operating hours frequently triggers renewal decisions. New trailers also incorporate technologies — such as regenerative axles and advanced telematics — that improve efficiency and reduce lifetime operating costs.

As a result, ING expects a “technical” rebound in European trailer sales in 2026, likely in the low double digits from a depressed base of around 80 per cent of the ten-year average. This recovery reflects delayed replacement rather than renewed confidence in freight growth.

Leasing and structure shape the rebound

The nature of the recovery is also influenced by market structure. Leasing and rental companies account for a growing share of trailer ownership, and full-service models such as “trailers as a service” are gaining ground. Large fleet owners are therefore likely to play a disproportionate role in determining when and how replacement demand materialises.

Western Europe is expected to see a mild rebound, while differences between trailer types remain pronounced. Standard curtain-side trailers, which are highly sensitive to economic cycles, saw their market share fall sharply during the downturn but are likely to recover as investment resumes. Refrigerated box trailers have shown more stable demand throughout, reflecting their role in food and high-value goods transport.

A cautious recovery with structural drivers

The picture that emerges is not one of rapid expansion, but of adjustment. Europe’s trailer market is moving from a phase of postponed investment into one where renewal is increasingly difficult to avoid. Efficiency improvements and digitalisation are reducing waste, but they also expose the limitations of ageing equipment.

The recovery expected in 2026 will therefore be quieter than previous upswings — driven less by growth in transport volumes than by the need to restore reliability, comply with regulation and manage rising operating costs. In that sense, it is not a return to the past, but a reset shaped by structural constraints rather than cyclical optimism.