The study, conducted by Effigy Consulting and commissioned by FedEx, analysed data from over 300 carriers across 41 countries. It found that 2024’s peak season deliveries would surpass last year’s 5.7 billion parcels, with nearly 70% of shipments going directly to consumers.
E-commerce leads the growth
E-commerce remains the key driver of parcel volumes, with 4.2 billion shipments expected to be delivered to consumers during the festive season. Events like Black Friday and the run-up to Christmas continue to boost demand, with Peak season accounting for approximately 30% of the total annual parcel volume—seven percentage points higher than the average across other quarters.
Business-to-business (B2B) deliveries are projected to account for nearly a fifth (19.5%) of activity, while consumer-to-consumer (C2C) shipments, such as holiday gifts, will make up 8%. Consumer-to-business (C2B) shipments represent a small percentage of the total.
Regional leaders
The UK is forecast to handle the highest volume, with 1.3 billion parcels expected to be delivered, followed by Germany with 1.1 billion and France with 524 million. Across the EU and UK, an average of 12 parcels per person will be delivered during the three-month period.
In terms of weight, nearly 7.5 million tonnes of goods will be transported during this time—equivalent to 15 kg for every person living in the EU and UK.
Import-export dynamics
Europe is expected to import significantly more goods than it exports during the Peak season, with 200 million shipments arriving from countries such as China and the USA. Outbound shipments will total 75 million parcels. However, European businesses will still export nearly 500 million parcels within and outside the continent, showcasing the region’s active role in global trade.
Commenting on the findings, Wouter Roels, Regional President for Europe at FedEx, said:
“Peak season is a critical time for the logistics sector and the countless businesses that we support. This year is expected to be the biggest since the pandemic for parcel deliveries, reflecting the strength of European e-commerce.”
Roels also highlighted the importance of infrastructure:
“Europe’s role as an exporting region should not be overlooked. Excellent intercontinental air and intra-European road networks are vital to ensuring success during this period.”
The scale of peak season
To underline the scale of activity, the study notes that if all parcels delivered during the quarter were laid end-to-end, they would stretch 1.15 million miles—enough to reach the moon and back twice.
The data confirms that the courier, express, and parcels (CEP) sector continues to grow, with Peak season being a key driver of profitability for many businesses.
Table one: European Peak deliveries by sender and recipient
| Delivery type | October to December predicted volume |
| Business to consumer | 4,284,943,000 |
| Business to business | 1,215,763,000 |
| Consumer to consumer | 486,200,000 |
| Consumer to business | 236,735,000 |
Table two: European exports by destination
| Destination | October to December predicted volume |
| Other EU countries (e.g. FR to DE) | 340,260,000 |
| Non-EU Europe (e.g. FR to UK) | 65,930,000 |
| Rest of world (e.g. FR to US) | 75,470,000 |
Table three: European imports from outside the EU
| Source of imports | October to December predicted volume |
| Rest of world (e.g. US to FR) | 191,760,000 |