The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, including the United States’ bombing of Iranian nuclear sites on 22 June, has caused temporary disruption to air cargo and shipping flows across the Gulf region, according to analysis by Transport Intelligence. Although the Straits of Hormuz remained open throughout, freight rates on key trade lanes surged due to heightened security risks and fuel costs.
In a report published by Ti Insight, Chief Analyst John Manners-Bell stated that the US operation, codenamed Midnight Hammer, followed nearly two weeks of Israeli bombardments and retaliatory missile strikes by Iran. The military actions prompted several international airlines to suspend or reroute flights to regional hubs including Dubai, Doha, Dammam and Riyadh, significantly affecting cargo movements. According to Manners-Bell, air services are now beginning to normalise under a tentative ceasefire.
Maritime transport also faced disruption. As noted in the report, several tankers made U-turns to avoid the Straits of Hormuz in the immediate aftermath of the US airstrike. However, Manners-Bell confirmed that “the passage was never actually shut,” and vessel traffic remained close to seasonal averages.
Despite the continued flow of ships through the straits, the perceived threat had a direct impact on shipping costs. Drawing on data from Xeneta, Ti Insight reported that freight rates on the Shanghai–Jebel Ali route rose by 50% in just one month. The increase was driven by faster steaming through high-risk zones, elevated oil prices, and the cost of additional security measures.
Ti Insight also highlighted the strategic importance of the Straits of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil and 200 container shipping services pass daily. Manners-Bell warned that any serious disruption would have major consequences for global trade and regional economies. It would affect not only oil exports from Saudi Arabia and LNG flows from Qatar—which accounts for about 20% of the global LNG market—but also the transhipment operations at UAE ports.
While Iran threatened to close the straits, Ti Insight assessed that such a move would be self-defeating. Manners-Bell pointed out that Iran’s main port, Bandar Abbas, lies just beyond the straits and would also be impacted.
“Any action undertaken by its security forces would disrupt supplies of food, consumer goods, bulk goods, minerals and oil,” he wrote.
Citing figures from energy consultancy Kpler, the Ti Insight report underlined Iran’s reliance on the straits for oil exports, particularly to China. As Manners-Bell observed, closing the passage would not only cut off an essential source of foreign currency for Iran but could also destabilise economic ties with its few remaining allies.
The report concluded that a full naval blockade remains unlikely, but warned of the potential for asymmetric disruption.:
“A few strikes on Western vessels by Iranian suicide drones or missiles, kidnapping of crew or diversion of ships” could cause considerable volatility in regional shipping markets, Ti Insight cautioned, similar to tactics used by the Houthis in the Red Sea.
